Tuesday, November 3, 2026 · 19 games · KenPom on 19 · StatSharp on 12 · built 9:36 PM CT
Every game on tonight's slate with KenPom's number next to DraftKings' line, how the line has moved, and the StatSharp systems that apply. These are leans for research, not locks. Confirm injuries and lineups before tip.
19 plays flagged (15 from the KenPom edge, 4 from StatSharp systems, 0 where every model agrees). Ranked by edge, line movement, systems support and model agreement, two per game at most.
The model blend projects 166 vs a DK total of 172.5: 6.7 pts toward the under. Total moved 171.5 to 172.5. 9 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 47%). KenPom 166 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 170 (agrees); Torvik 167 (agrees); EvanMiya 162 (agrees).
The model blend projects 161 vs a DK total of 166.5: 5.1 pts toward the under. Total moved 167.5 to 166.5. KenPom 161 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 170 (disagrees); Torvik 158 (agrees); EvanMiya 161 (agrees).
The model blend has Virginia by 27.3; DK has Virginia by 31.5, so 4.2 pts of value on Drexel. No move yet since the first snapshot at 5:00 PM. 2 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 26%). KenPom has Virginia by 25 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Virginia by 18; Torvik has Virginia by 30 (agrees); EvanMiya has Virginia by 26 (agrees).
The model blend projects 155 vs a DK total of 159.5: 4.7 pts toward the under. No move yet since the first snapshot at 5:00 PM. KenPom 157 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 151 (agrees); Torvik 156 (agrees); EvanMiya 152 (agrees).
The model blend has Texas A&M by 27.9; DK has Texas A&M by 32.5, so 4.6 pts of value on Alabama St. No move yet since the first snapshot at 5:00 PM. KenPom has Texas A&M by 26 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Texas A&M by 17 (agrees); Torvik has Texas A&M by 27 (agrees); EvanMiya has Texas A&M by 30 (agrees).
The model blend projects 157 vs a DK total of 163.5: 6.4 pts toward the under. Total moved 161.5 to 163.5. KenPom 160 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 149 (agrees); Torvik 159 (agrees); EvanMiya 155 (agrees).
The model blend projects 151 vs a DK total of 155.5: 4.5 pts toward the under. No move yet since the first snapshot at 5:00 PM. 1 StatSharp system on the other side. KenPom 151 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 154 (agrees); Torvik 152 (agrees); EvanMiya 148 (agrees).
The model blend has Duquesne by 13.3; DK has Duquesne by 9.5, so 3.8 pts of value on Duquesne. No move yet since the first snapshot at 5:00 PM. KenPom has Duquesne by 12 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Duquesne by 7 (agrees); Torvik has Duquesne by 15 (agrees); EvanMiya has Duquesne by 10.
The model blend has South Carolina by 15.7; DK has South Carolina by 20.5, so 4.8 pts of value on Stetson. Line moved -19.5 to -20.5 (toward South Carolina). KenPom has South Carolina by 14 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Stetson by 0 (agrees); Torvik has South Carolina by 17 (agrees); EvanMiya has South Carolina by 18 (agrees).
The model blend has Iowa by 20.8; DK has Iowa by 23.5, so 2.7 pts of value on Lipscomb. No move yet since the first snapshot at 5:00 PM. 1 StatSharp system back this side (best ROI 46%). KenPom has Iowa by 20 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Iowa by 15 (disagrees); Torvik has Iowa by 21 (agrees); EvanMiya has Iowa by 18 (agrees).
Spreads are the home team's number. Edge is the market minus the model blend (a weighted average of KenPom, the StatSharp sim, Torvik and EvanMiya, with weights set by each model's season record): positive likes the home side, and on totals positive likes the over. Gold edges clear the flag thresholds (2.5 on spreads, 4 on totals). Sim is StatSharp's game simulation, T-Rank is Torvik and EM is EvanMiya; the number in brackets is that model's edge against the line, same sign rules. Plays are flagged off the blend; each model's agreement or disagreement also moves a play's rank, in proportion to its weight. The sim leans toward the underdog in nearly every game, so its vote is measured against that usual lean (+13.5 pts today).
| Tip CT | Game | Open | Now | Move | KenPom | Blend | Edge | Sim | T-Rank | EvanMiya | Tot open | Tot now | Move | KP total | Blend | Edge | Sim tot | TR tot | EM tot | ML away / home | Systems | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5:00 PM | Wofford Terriers @ Tennessee VolunteersLine shop › | -24.5 | -25.5 | -1 | -27.0 | -27.1 | +1.6 | -14.0 (-11.5) | -30.0 (+4.5) | -24.0 (-1.5) | 155.5 | 155.5 | – | 151.0 | 151.0 | -4.5 | 154.0 (-1.5) | 152.0 (-3.5) | 148.4 (-7.1) | +2500 / -9000 | Tennessee 3, Over 1 | high-major |
| 6:00 PM | Wagner Seahawks @ Boston College EaglesLine shop › | -19.5 | -20.5 | -1 | -16.0 | -18.8 | -1.7 | -4.0 (-16.5) | -22.0 (+1.5) | -20.2 (-0.3) | 142.5 | 143.5 | +1 | 142.0 | 143.3 | -0.2 | 136.0 (-7.5) | 146.0 (+2.5) | 146.4 (+2.9) | +1600 / -4000 | – | high-major |
| 6:00 PM | Fort Wayne Mastodons @ Duquesne DukesLine shop › | -9.5 | -9.5 | – | -12.0 | -13.3 | +3.8 | -7.0 (-2.5) | -15.0 (+5.5) | -10.2 (+0.7) | 153.5 | 153.5 | – | 152.0 | 151.1 | -2.4 | 145.0 (-8.5) | 153.0 (-0.5) | 151.0 (-2.5) | +380 / -500 | – | other |
| 6:00 PM | Hampton Pirates @ Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsLine shop › | -14.5 | -13.5 | +1 | -12.0 | -12.0 | -1.5 | -6.0 (-7.5) | -9.0 (-4.5) | -11.8 (-1.7) | 148.5 | 149.5 | +1 | 146.0 | 147.8 | -1.7 | 144.0 (-5.5) | 151.0 (+1.5) | 149.4 (-0.1) | +800 / -1350 | – | high-major |
| 6:00 PM | Manhattan Jaspers @ Kentucky WildcatsLine shop › | -33.5 | -33.5 | – | -29.0 | -32.1 | -1.4 | -17.0 (-16.5) | -35.0 (+1.5) | -34.3 (+0.8) | 158.5 | 158.5 | – | 157.0 | 155.6 | -2.9 | 153.0 (-5.5) | 157.0 (-1.5) | 153.5 (-5.0) | – / – | Over 3 | high-major |
| 6:00 PM | Holy Cross Crusaders @ Rhode Island RamsLine shop › | -20.5 | -20.5 | – | -19.0 | -18.2 | -2.3 | -6.0 (-14.5) | -17.0 (-3.5) | -17.5 (-3.0) | 147.5 | 147.5 | – | 145.0 | 145.0 | -2.5 | 138.0 (-9.5) | 149.0 (+1.5) | 144.9 (-2.6) | +1700 / -4500 | – | other |
| 6:00 PM | Stetson Hatters @ South Carolina GamecocksLine shop › | -19.5 | -20.5 | -1 | -14.0 | -15.7 | -4.8 | -0.0 (-20.5) | -17.0 (-3.5) | -17.9 (-2.6) | 149.5 | 149.5 | – | 150.0 | 148.4 | -1.1 | 148.0 (-1.5) | 147.0 (-2.5) | 147.5 (-2.0) | +1800 / -5000 | Under 1 | high-major |
| 6:00 PM | Coppin St Eagles @ Virginia Tech HokiesLine shop › | -31.5 | -31.5 | – | -30.0 | -31.2 | -0.3 | -17.0 (-14.5) | -34.0 (+2.5) | -30.4 (-1.1) | 150.5 | 150.5 | – | 146.0 | 147.4 | -3.1 | 143.0 (-7.5) | 152.0 (+1.5) | 147.2 (-3.3) | – / – | – | high-major |
| 6:30 PM | Sam Houston St Bearkats @ Alabama Crimson TideLine shop › | -26.5 | -27.5 | -1 | -26.0 | -25.7 | -1.8 | -14.0 (-13.5) | -23.0 (-4.5) | -27.0 (-0.5) | 171.5 | 172.5 | +1 | 166.0 | 165.8 | -6.7 | 170.0 (-2.5) | 167.0 (-5.5) | 161.8 (-10.7) | +2200 / -8000 | Under 9 | high-major |
| 6:30 PM | Drexel Dragons @ Virginia CavaliersLine shop › | -31.5 | -31.5 | – | -25.0 | -27.3 | -4.2 | -18.0 (-13.5) | -30.0 (-1.5) | -26.0 (-5.5) | 142.5 | 142.5 | – | 141.0 | 139.8 | -2.7 | 140.0 (-2.5) | 138.0 (-4.5) | 139.6 (-2.9) | – / – | Drexel 2 | high-major |
| 7:00 PM | Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions @ Arkansas RazorbacksLine shop › | -41.5 | -41.5 | – | -35.0 | -38.4 | -3.1 | -24.0 (-17.5) | -40.0 (-1.5) | -42.3 (+0.8) | 167.5 | 166.5 | -1 | 161.0 | 161.4 | -5.1 | 170.0 (+3.5) | 158.0 (-8.5) | 160.9 (-5.6) | – / – | Arkansas 3 | high-major |
| 7:00 PM | Lipscomb Bisons @ Iowa HawkeyesLine shop › | -23.5 | -23.5 | – | -20.0 | -20.8 | -2.7 | -15.0 (-8.5) | -21.0 (-2.5) | -18.3 (-5.2) | 145.5 | 149.5 | +4 | 150.0 | 148.9 | -0.6 | 151.0 (+1.5) | 145.0 (-4.5) | 150.1 (+0.6) | +2200 / -8000 | Lipscomb 1 | high-major |
| 7:00 PM | South Dakota St Jackrabbits @ Kansas St WildcatsLine shop › | -11.5 | -10.5 | +1 | -13.0 | -14.9 | +4.4 | -1.0 (-9.5) | -20.0 (+9.5) | -12.8 (+2.3) | 159.5 | 159.5 | – | 157.0 | 154.8 | -4.7 | 151.0 (-8.5) | 156.0 (-3.5) | 152.4 (-7.1) | +490 / -675 | – | other |
| 7:00 PM | New Orleans Privateers @ LSU TigersLine shop › | -27.5 | -27.5 | – | -24.0 | -23.5 | -4.0 | -4.0 (-23.5) | -19.0 (-8.5) | -30.0 (+2.5) | 159.5 | 159.5 | – | 158.0 | 156.2 | -3.3 | 156.0 (-3.5) | 155.0 (-4.5) | 155.0 (-4.5) | +3000 / -10000 | – | high-major |
| 7:00 PM | Cleveland St Vikings @ Missouri TigersLine shop › | -26.5 | -26.5 | – | -26.0 | -27.1 | +0.6 | -13.0 (-13.5) | -29.0 (+2.5) | -26.9 (+0.4) | 159.5 | 160.5 | +1 | 160.0 | 158.8 | -1.7 | 167.0 (+6.5) | 157.0 (-3.5) | 154.3 (-6.2) | +2200 / -8000 | – | high-major |
| 7:00 PM | Alabama St Hornets @ Texas A&M AggiesLine shop › | -32.5 | -32.5 | – | -26.0 | -27.9 | -4.6 | -17.0 (-15.5) | -27.0 (-5.5) | -30.3 (-2.2) | 161.5 | 163.5 | +2 | 160.0 | 157.1 | -6.4 | 149.0 (-14.5) | 159.0 (-4.5) | 155.3 (-8.2) | – / – | – | high-major |
| 9:00 PM | North Florida Ospreys @ Cal Baptist LancersLine shop › | -11.5 | -10.5 | +1 | -7.0 | -11.1 | +0.6 | -12.0 (+1.5) | -13.0 (+2.5) | -8.8 (-1.7) | 158.5 | 155.5 | -3 | 157.0 | 153.6 | -1.9 | 148.0 (-7.5) | 151.0 (-4.5) | 154.4 (-1.1) | +470 / -650 | – | other |
| 9:00 PM | CSU Fullerton Titans @ San Diego St AztecsLine shop › | -16.5 | -13.5 | +3 | -14.0 | -17.3 | +3.8 | -7.0 (-6.5) | -22.0 (+8.5) | -16.1 (+2.6) | 154.5 | 154.5 | – | 152.0 | 152.7 | -1.8 | 151.0 (-3.5) | 152.0 (-2.5) | 155.5 (+1.0) | +800 / -1350 | Over 1 | other |
| 9:00 PM | Northern Arizona Lumberjacks @ UNLV RebelsLine shop › | -21.5 | -20.5 | +1 | -18.0 | -18.9 | -1.6 | -12.0 (-8.5) | -22.0 (+1.5) | -14.2 (-6.3) | 153.5 | 153.5 | – | 146.0 | 149.1 | -4.4 | 156.0 (+2.5) | 152.0 (-1.5) | 147.0 (-6.5) | +1800 / -5000 | Over 6 | other |
Line-24.5 → -25.5 (-1)
KP-27.0
Sim-14.0 (-11.5)
TR-30.0 (+4.5)
EM-24.0 (-1.5)
Blend-27.1
Edge+1.6 Tennessee
Line155.5
KP151.0
Sim154.0 (-1.5)
TR152.0 (-3.5)
EM148.4 (-7.1)
Blend151.0
Edge-4.5 Under
Line-19.5 → -20.5 (-1)
KP-16.0
Sim-4.0 (-16.5)
TR-22.0 (+1.5)
EM-20.2 (-0.3)
Blend-18.8
Edge-1.7 Wagner
Line142.5 → 143.5 (+1)
KP142.0
Sim136.0 (-7.5)
TR146.0 (+2.5)
EM146.4 (+2.9)
Blend143.3
Edge-0.2 Under
Line-9.5
KP-12.0
Sim-7.0 (-2.5)
TR-15.0 (+5.5)
EM-10.2 (+0.7)
Blend-13.3
Edge+3.8 Duquesne
Line153.5
KP152.0
Sim145.0 (-8.5)
TR153.0 (-0.5)
EM151.0 (-2.5)
Blend151.1
Edge-2.4 Under
Line-14.5 → -13.5 (+1)
KP-12.0
Sim-6.0 (-7.5)
TR-9.0 (-4.5)
EM-11.8 (-1.7)
Blend-12.0
Edge-1.5 Hampton
Line148.5 → 149.5 (+1)
KP146.0
Sim144.0 (-5.5)
TR151.0 (+1.5)
EM149.4 (-0.1)
Blend147.8
Edge-1.7 Under
Line-33.5
KP-29.0
Sim-17.0 (-16.5)
TR-35.0 (+1.5)
EM-34.3 (+0.8)
Blend-32.1
Edge-1.4 Manhattan
Line158.5
KP157.0
Sim153.0 (-5.5)
TR157.0 (-1.5)
EM153.5 (-5.0)
Blend155.6
Edge-2.9 Under
Line-20.5
KP-19.0
Sim-6.0 (-14.5)
TR-17.0 (-3.5)
EM-17.5 (-3.0)
Blend-18.2
Edge-2.3 Holy Cross
Line147.5
KP145.0
Sim138.0 (-9.5)
TR149.0 (+1.5)
EM144.9 (-2.6)
Blend145.0
Edge-2.5 Under
Line-19.5 → -20.5 (-1)
KP-14.0
Sim-0.0 (-20.5)
TR-17.0 (-3.5)
EM-17.9 (-2.6)
Blend-15.7
Edge-4.8 Stetson
Line149.5
KP150.0
Sim148.0 (-1.5)
TR147.0 (-2.5)
EM147.5 (-2.0)
Blend148.4
Edge-1.1 Under
Line-31.5
KP-30.0
Sim-17.0 (-14.5)
TR-34.0 (+2.5)
EM-30.4 (-1.1)
Blend-31.2
Edge-0.3 Coppin St
Line150.5
KP146.0
Sim143.0 (-7.5)
TR152.0 (+1.5)
EM147.2 (-3.3)
Blend147.4
Edge-3.1 Under
Line-26.5 → -27.5 (-1)
KP-26.0
Sim-14.0 (-13.5)
TR-23.0 (-4.5)
EM-27.0 (-0.5)
Blend-25.7
Edge-1.8 Sam Houston St
Line171.5 → 172.5 (+1)
KP166.0
Sim170.0 (-2.5)
TR167.0 (-5.5)
EM161.8 (-10.7)
Blend165.8
Edge-6.7 Under
Line-31.5
KP-25.0
Sim-18.0 (-13.5)
TR-30.0 (-1.5)
EM-26.0 (-5.5)
Blend-27.3
Edge-4.2 Drexel
Line142.5
KP141.0
Sim140.0 (-2.5)
TR138.0 (-4.5)
EM139.6 (-2.9)
Blend139.8
Edge-2.7 Under
Line-41.5
KP-35.0
Sim-24.0 (-17.5)
TR-40.0 (-1.5)
EM-42.3 (+0.8)
Blend-38.4
Edge-3.1 Arkansas Pine Bluff
Line167.5 → 166.5 (-1)
KP161.0
Sim170.0 (+3.5)
TR158.0 (-8.5)
EM160.9 (-5.6)
Blend161.4
Edge-5.1 Under
Line-23.5
KP-20.0
Sim-15.0 (-8.5)
TR-21.0 (-2.5)
EM-18.3 (-5.2)
Blend-20.8
Edge-2.7 Lipscomb
Line145.5 → 149.5 (+4)
KP150.0
Sim151.0 (+1.5)
TR145.0 (-4.5)
EM150.1 (+0.6)
Blend148.9
Edge-0.6 Under
Line-11.5 → -10.5 (+1)
KP-13.0
Sim-1.0 (-9.5)
TR-20.0 (+9.5)
EM-12.8 (+2.3)
Blend-14.9
Edge+4.4 Kansas St
Line159.5
KP157.0
Sim151.0 (-8.5)
TR156.0 (-3.5)
EM152.4 (-7.1)
Blend154.8
Edge-4.7 Under
Line-27.5
KP-24.0
Sim-4.0 (-23.5)
TR-19.0 (-8.5)
EM-30.0 (+2.5)
Blend-23.5
Edge-4.0 LSU New Orleans
Line159.5
KP158.0
Sim156.0 (-3.5)
TR155.0 (-4.5)
EM155.0 (-4.5)
Blend156.2
Edge-3.3 Under
Line-26.5
KP-26.0
Sim-13.0 (-13.5)
TR-29.0 (+2.5)
EM-26.9 (+0.4)
Blend-27.1
Edge+0.6 Missouri
Line159.5 → 160.5 (+1)
KP160.0
Sim167.0 (+6.5)
TR157.0 (-3.5)
EM154.3 (-6.2)
Blend158.8
Edge-1.7 Under
Line-32.5
KP-26.0
Sim-17.0 (-15.5)
TR-27.0 (-5.5)
EM-30.3 (-2.2)
Blend-27.9
Edge-4.6 Alabama St
Line161.5 → 163.5 (+2)
KP160.0
Sim149.0 (-14.5)
TR159.0 (-4.5)
EM155.3 (-8.2)
Blend157.1
Edge-6.4 Under
Line-11.5 → -10.5 (+1)
KP-7.0
Sim-12.0 (+1.5)
TR-13.0 (+2.5)
EM-8.8 (-1.7)
Blend-11.1
Edge+0.6 Cal Baptist
Line158.5 → 155.5 (-3)
KP157.0
Sim148.0 (-7.5)
TR151.0 (-4.5)
EM154.4 (-1.1)
Blend153.6
Edge-1.9 Under
Line-16.5 → -13.5 (+3)
KP-14.0
Sim-7.0 (-6.5)
TR-22.0 (+8.5)
EM-16.1 (+2.6)
Blend-17.3
Edge+3.8 San Diego St
Line154.5
KP152.0
Sim151.0 (-3.5)
TR152.0 (-2.5)
EM155.5 (+1.0)
Blend152.7
Edge-1.8 Under
Line-21.5 → -20.5 (+1)
KP-18.0
Sim-12.0 (-8.5)
TR-22.0 (+1.5)
EM-14.2 (-6.3)
Blend-18.9
Edge-1.6 Northern Arizona
Line153.5
KP146.0
Sim156.0 (+2.5)
TR152.0 (-1.5)
EM147.0 (-6.5)
Blend149.1
Edge-4.4 Under
No games match.
Best number on each side across 10 books at the last pull (Nov 3, 5:00 PM CT). Tap a price to open that bet in the book's app or site; DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM links go straight to the bet slip when the book allows it. The same links open the game for live betting after tip. Gold outlines are the sides on today's board. Lines move: check the price in the app before you bet.
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Wofford | Tennessee | O | U | Wofford | Tennessee |
| DK | +25.5-110↗ | -25.5-110↗ | 155.5-112↗ | 155.5-108↗ | +2500↗ | -9000↗ |
| FD | +24.5-102↗ | -24.5-120↗ | 155.5-115↗ | 155.5-105↗ | +3500↗ | -20000↗ |
| MGM | +25.5-115↗ | -25.5-105↗ | 155.5-110↗ | 155.5-110↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +25-117 | -25-103 | 155.5-110 | 155.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +25.5-109 | -25.5-114 | 156.5-113 | 156.5-109 | – | – |
| BUS | +25-110 | -25-110 | 155.5-110 | 155.5-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +25.5-115 | -25.5-105 | 155.5-115 | 155.5-105 | +3500 | -20000 |
| FAN | +25-110 | -25-110 | 156-110 | 156-110 | +3500 | -10000 |
| LV | +25-113 | -25+101 | 155.5-108 | 155.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +25.5-110 | -25.5-110 | 155.5-110 | 155.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Wagner | Boston College | O | U | Wagner | Boston College |
| DK | +20.5-115↗ | -20.5-105↗ | 143.5-105↗ | 143.5-115↗ | +1600↗ | -4000↗ |
| FD | +19.5-102↗ | -19.5-120↗ | 143.5-110↗ | 143.5-110↗ | +1600↗ | -4500↗ |
| MGM | +20.5-115↗ | -20.5-105↗ | 143.5-110↗ | 143.5-110↗ | +1400↗ | -5000↗ |
| BOL | +20-106 | -20-114 | 143-115 | 143-105 | – | – |
| BR | +19.5-106 | -19.5-117 | 143.5-110 | 143.5-113 | – | – |
| BOV | +20.5-115 | -20.5-105 | 143.5-105 | 143.5-115 | +1600 | -10000 |
| FAN | +20-110 | -20-110 | 143.5-110 | 143.5-110 | +1800 | -4000 |
| LV | +20-102 | -20-110 | 143-113 | 143-103 | – | – |
| CZR | +20-110 | -20-110 | 143.5-110 | 143.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Purdue Fort Wayne | Duquesne | O | U | Purdue Fort Wayne | Duquesne |
| DK | +9.5-105↗ | -9.5-115↗ | 153.5-108↗ | 153.5-112↗ | +380↗ | -500↗ |
| FD | +9.5-105↗ | -9.5-115↗ | 153.5-115↗ | 153.5-105↗ | +390↗ | -530↗ |
| MGM | +9.5-105↗ | -9.5-115↗ | 153.5-110↗ | 153.5-110↗ | +375↗ | -500↗ |
| BOL | +9.5-108 | -9.5-112 | 153.5-115 | 153.5-105 | +396 | -520 |
| BR | +9.5-108 | -9.5-115 | 153.5-110 | 153.5-113 | +375 | -530 |
| BUS | +10-115 | -10-105 | 153.5-110 | 153.5-110 | +400 | -520 |
| BOV | +9.5-105 | -9.5-115 | 152.5-120 | 152.5+100 | +390 | -550 |
| FAN | +9.5-110 | -9.5-110 | 153.5-110 | 153.5-110 | +390 | -525 |
| LV | +9.5-104 | -9.5-108 | 153.5-113 | 153.5-103 | +396 | -520 |
| CZR | +9.5-110 | -9.5-110 | 153.5-110 | 153.5-110 | +360 | -480 |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Hampton | Georgia Tech | O | U | Hampton | Georgia Tech |
| DK | +13.5-105↗ | -13.5-115↗ | 149.5-105↗ | 149.5-115↗ | +800↗ | -1350↗ |
| FD | +13.5-105↗ | -13.5-115↗ | 148.5-110↗ | 148.5-110↗ | +800↗ | -1400↗ |
| MGM | +13.5-105↗ | -13.5-115↗ | 149.5-105↗ | 149.5-115↗ | +725↗ | -1200↗ |
| BOL | +14-115 | -14-105 | 149-110 | 149-110 | +817 | -1350 |
| BR | +14.5-117 | -14.5-107 | 149.5-114 | 149.5-109 | +700 | -1250 |
| BUS | +14-115 | -14-105 | 149-110 | 149-110 | +830 | -1350 |
| BOV | +14-110 | -14-110 | 149-115 | 149-105 | +750 | -1400 |
| FAN | +14-110 | -14-110 | 150-110 | 150-110 | +800 | -1300 |
| LV | +14-108 | -14-104 | 149-108 | 149-108 | +817 | -1350 |
| CZR | +14-110 | -14-110 | 150-110 | 150-110 | +700 | -1100 |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Manhattan | Kentucky | O | U | Manhattan | Kentucky |
| DK | +33.5-112↗ | -33.5-108↗ | 158.5-110↗ | 158.5-110↗ | – | – |
| FD | +32.5-104↗ | -32.5-118↗ | 158.5-110↗ | 158.5-110↗ | – | – |
| MGM | +33.5-110↗ | -33.5-110↗ | 158.5-110↗ | 158.5-110↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +33.5-110 | -33.5-110 | 158.5-107 | 158.5-113 | – | – |
| BR | +33.5-117 | -33.5-107 | 158.5-113 | 158.5-110 | – | – |
| BUS | +33-110 | -33-110 | 158.5-110 | 158.5-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +33-110 | -33-110 | 158.5-105 | 158.5-115 | – | – |
| FAN | +33-110 | -33-110 | 158.5-110 | 158.5-110 | +9000 | -50000 |
| LV | +33.5-106 | -33.5-106 | 158.5-105 | 158.5-111 | – | – |
| CZR | +33-110 | -33-110 | 157.5-110 | 157.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Holy Cross | Rhode Island | O | U | Holy Cross | Rhode Island |
| DK | +20.5-118↗ | -20.5-102↗ | 147.5-108↗ | 147.5-112↗ | +1700↗ | -4500↗ |
| FD | +19.5-102↗ | -19.5-120↗ | 147.5-110↗ | 147.5-110↗ | +1600↗ | -4500↗ |
| MGM | +20.5-115↗ | -20.5-105↗ | 147.5-105↗ | 147.5-115↗ | +1350↗ | -5000↗ |
| BOL | +20-110 | -20-110 | 147-110 | 147-110 | – | – |
| BR | +20.5-110 | -20.5-113 | 147.5-109 | 147.5-113 | – | – |
| BOV | +19.5-105 | -19.5-115 | 147.5-110 | 147.5-110 | +1600 | -10000 |
| FAN | +20-110 | -20-110 | 147-110 | 147-110 | +2000 | -5000 |
| LV | +20-106 | -20-106 | 147-108 | 147-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +19.5-110 | -19.5-110 | 147-110 | 147-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Stetson | South Carolina | O | U | Stetson | South Carolina |
| DK | +20.5-112↗ | -20.5-108↗ | 149.5-110↗ | 149.5-110↗ | +1800↗ | -5000↗ |
| FD | +20.5-110↗ | -20.5-110↗ | 148.5-115↗ | 148.5-105↗ | +1600↗ | -4500↗ |
| MGM | +20.5-115↗ | -20.5-105↗ | 149.5-105↗ | 149.5-115↗ | +1350↗ | -5000↗ |
| BOL | +20-110 | -20-110 | 149-108 | 149-112 | – | – |
| BR | +20.5-114 | -20.5-109 | 149.5-113 | 149.5-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +20.5-110 | -20.5-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | +1600 | -10000 |
| FAN | +19.5+100 | -19.5-120 | 148-110 | 148-110 | +1700 | -3000 |
| LV | +20-106 | -20-106 | 149-106 | 149-110 | – | – |
| CZR | +20-110 | -20-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Coppin St | Virginia Tech | O | U | Coppin St | Virginia Tech |
| DK | +31.5-112↗ | -31.5-108↗ | 150.5-110↗ | 150.5-110↗ | – | – |
| FD | +30.5-110↗ | -30.5-110↗ | 151.5-105↗ | 151.5-115↗ | – | – |
| MGM | +30.5-105↗ | -30.5-115↗ | 150.5-115↗ | 150.5-105↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +31-110 | -31-110 | 150.5-110 | 150.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +31.5-117 | -31.5-107 | 150.5-114 | 150.5-109 | – | – |
| BOV | +31.5-110 | -31.5-110 | 150.5-110 | 150.5-110 | – | – |
| FAN | +31-110 | -31-110 | 151-110 | 151-110 | +8000 | -50000 |
| LV | +31-106 | -31-106 | 150.5-108 | 150.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +31.5-110 | -31.5-110 | 150.5-110 | 150.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Sam Houston St | Alabama | O | U | Sam Houston St | Alabama |
| DK | +27.5-115↗ | -27.5-105↗ | 172.5-108↗ | 172.5-112↗ | +2200↗ | -8000↗ |
| FD | +26.5-110↗ | -26.5-110↗ | 171.5-115↗ | 171.5-105↗ | – | – |
| MGM | +26.5-105↗ | -26.5-115↗ | 171.5-115↗ | 171.5-105↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +27-110 | -27-110 | 172.5-110 | 172.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +27.5-118 | -27.5-106 | 172.5-112 | 172.5-112 | – | – |
| BUS | +27-110 | -27-110 | 172.5-110 | 172.5-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +27-115 | -27-105 | 171.5-110 | 171.5-110 | +3000 | -10000 |
| FAN | +27-110 | -27-110 | 172-110 | 172-110 | +3500 | -10000 |
| LV | +27-106 | -27-106 | 172.5-108 | 172.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +27-110 | -27-110 | 172.5-110 | 172.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Drexel | Virginia | O | U | Drexel | Virginia |
| DK | +31.5-105↗ | -31.5-115↗ | 142.5-115↗ | 142.5-105↗ | – | – |
| FD | +31.5-110↗ | -31.5-110↗ | 142.5-110↗ | 142.5-110↗ | – | – |
| MGM | +31.5-105↗ | -31.5-115↗ | 142.5-115↗ | 142.5-105↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +32-110 | -32-110 | 142.5-116 | 142.5-104 | – | – |
| BR | +31.5-113 | -31.5-110 | 142.5-112 | 142.5-112 | – | – |
| BUS | +32-110 | -32-110 | 142.5-110 | 142.5-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +32-110 | -32-110 | 142.5-110 | 142.5-110 | – | – |
| FAN | +31.5-105 | -31.5-115 | 142.5-110 | 142.5-110 | +7000 | -50000 |
| LV | +32-106 | -32-106 | 142.5-109 | 142.5-107 | – | – |
| CZR | +32-110 | -32-110 | 142.5-110 | 142.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Arkansas Pine Bluff | Arkansas | O | U | Arkansas Pine Bluff | Arkansas |
| DK | +41.5-105↗ | -41.5-115↗ | 166.5-112↗ | 166.5-108↗ | – | – |
| FD | +41.5-104↗ | -41.5-118↗ | 166.5-110↗ | 166.5-110↗ | – | – |
| MGM | +41.5-105↗ | -41.5-115↗ | 166.5-110↗ | 166.5-110↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +41.5-105 | -41.5-115 | 166.5-110 | 166.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +41.5-106 | -41.5-118 | 166.5-113 | 166.5-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +41.5-105 | -41.5-115 | 166.5-110 | 166.5-110 | – | – |
| FAN | +41.5-110 | -41.5-110 | 166.5-110 | 166.5-110 | +12000 | -100000 |
| LV | +41.5-101 | -41.5-111 | 166.5-108 | 166.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +42-110 | -42-110 | 166.5-110 | 166.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Lipscomb | Iowa | O | U | Lipscomb | Iowa |
| DK | +23.5-108↗ | -23.5-112↗ | 149.5-108↗ | 149.5-112↗ | +2200↗ | -8000↗ |
| FD | +22.5-102↗ | -22.5-120↗ | 148.5-118↗ | 148.5-104↗ | +2500↗ | -10000↗ |
| MGM | +23.5-110↗ | -23.5-110↗ | 149.5-105↗ | 149.5-115↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +23.5-105 | -23.5-115 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +23.5-118 | -23.5-105 | 149.5-109 | 149.5-113 | – | – |
| BOV | +23.5-110 | -23.5-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | – | – |
| FAN | +23.5-115 | -23.5-105 | 149-110 | 149-110 | +2250 | -5000 |
| LV | +23.5-101 | -23.5-111 | 149.5-108 | 149.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +23.5-110 | -23.5-110 | 149-110 | 149-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | South Dakota St | Kansas St | O | U | South Dakota St | Kansas St |
| DK | +10.5-105↗ | -10.5-115↗ | 159.5-105↗ | 159.5-115↗ | +490↗ | -675↗ |
| FD | +10.5-102↗ | -10.5-120↗ | 159.5-110↗ | 159.5-110↗ | +480↗ | -690↗ |
| MGM | +11.5-118↗ | -11.5-102↗ | 159.5-105↗ | 159.5-115↗ | +475↗ | -650↗ |
| BOL | +11-110 | -11-110 | 159-110 | 159-110 | +488 | -670 |
| BR | +11.5-109 | -11.5-114 | 158.5-114 | 158.5-109 | +475 | -715 |
| BUS | +11-110 | -11-110 | 159-110 | 159-110 | +485 | -670 |
| BOV | +10.5+100 | -10.5-120 | 159-110 | 159-110 | +460 | -675 |
| FAN | +11.5-115 | -11.5-105 | 159-110 | 159-110 | +500 | -700 |
| LV | +11-106 | -11-106 | 159-108 | 159-108 | +488 | -670 |
| CZR | +11-110 | -11-110 | 159-110 | 159-110 | +460 | -650 |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | LSU New Orleans | LSU | O | U | LSU New Orleans | LSU |
| DK | +27.5-110↗ | -27.5-110↗ | 159.5-110↗ | 159.5-110↗ | +3000↗ | -10000↗ |
| FD | +26.5-102↗ | -26.5-120↗ | 159.5-110↗ | 159.5-110↗ | +4000↗ | -30000↗ |
| BR | +27.5-113 | -27.5-110 | 160.5-110 | 160.5-113 | – | – |
| BOV | +27.5-110 | -27.5-110 | 159.5-110 | 159.5-110 | +1800 | -20000 |
| FAN | +27.5-110 | -27.5-110 | 159.5-115 | 159.5-105 | +3000 | -10000 |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Cleveland St | Missouri | O | U | Cleveland St | Missouri |
| DK | +26.5-108↗ | -26.5-112↗ | 160.5-110↗ | 160.5-110↗ | +2200↗ | -8000↗ |
| FD | +26.5-110↗ | -26.5-110↗ | 160.5-110↗ | 160.5-110↗ | +4000↗ | -30000↗ |
| MGM | +26.5-110↗ | -26.5-110↗ | 160.5-110↗ | 160.5-110↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +26.5-110 | -26.5-110 | 160.5-110 | 160.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +26.5-112 | -26.5-112 | 159.5-117 | 159.5-107 | – | – |
| BUS | +26.5-110 | -26.5-110 | 160.5-110 | 160.5-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +26.5-105 | -26.5-115 | 160.5-115 | 160.5-105 | +3000 | -10000 |
| FAN | +26.5-110 | -26.5-110 | 160.5-110 | 160.5-110 | +3000 | -10000 |
| LV | +26.5-106 | -26.5-106 | 160.5-108 | 160.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +26.5-110 | -26.5-110 | 160.5-110 | 160.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Alabama St | Texas A&M | O | U | Alabama St | Texas A&M |
| DK | +32.5-112↗ | -32.5-108↗ | 163.5-108↗ | 163.5-112↗ | – | – |
| FD | +32.5-115↗ | -32.5-105↗ | 163.5-106↗ | 163.5-114↗ | – | – |
| MGM | +32.5-110↗ | -32.5-110↗ | 163.5-110↗ | 163.5-110↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +32.5-110 | -32.5-110 | 163.5-110 | 163.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +32.5-117 | -32.5-106 | 163.5-109 | 163.5-113 | – | – |
| BOV | +32.5-110 | -32.5-110 | 163.5-110 | 163.5-110 | – | – |
| FAN | +32.5-110 | -32.5-110 | 163.5-107 | 163.5-112 | +8000 | -50000 |
| LV | +32.5-106 | -32.5-106 | 163.5-108 | 163.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +32.5-110 | -32.5-110 | 163.5-110 | 163.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | North Florida | Cal Baptist | O | U | North Florida | Cal Baptist |
| DK | +10.5-105↗ | -10.5-115↗ | 155.5-105↗ | 155.5-115↗ | +470↗ | -650↗ |
| FD | +11.5-115↗ | -11.5-105↗ | 154.5-115↗ | 154.5-105↗ | +530↗ | -780↗ |
| MGM | +10.5-105↗ | -10.5-115↗ | 155.5-105↗ | 155.5-115↗ | +450↗ | -625↗ |
| BOL | +10.5-105 | -10.5-115 | 154.5-110 | 154.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +11.5-117 | -11.5-107 | 155.5-115 | 155.5-108 | +450 | -670 |
| BOV | +10.5-105 | -10.5-115 | 155.5-105 | 155.5-115 | +460 | -675 |
| FAN | +11-110 | -11-110 | 155.5-110 | 155.5-110 | +500 | -700 |
| LV | +10.5-101 | -10.5-111 | 154.5-108 | 154.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +10.5-110 | -10.5-110 | 155.5-110 | 155.5-110 | +460 | -650 |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Cal St. Fullerton | San Diego St | O | U | Cal St. Fullerton | San Diego St |
| DK | +13.5-105↗ | -13.5-115↗ | 154.5-112↗ | 154.5-108↗ | +800↗ | -1350↗ |
| FD | +14.5-120↗ | -14.5-102↗ | 154.5-110↗ | 154.5-110↗ | +800↗ | -1400↗ |
| MGM | +13.5-105↗ | -13.5-115↗ | 154.5-110↗ | 154.5-110↗ | +725↗ | -1200↗ |
| BOL | +13.5-111 | -13.5-109 | 154.5-110 | 154.5-110 | +795 | -1300 |
| BR | +14.5-117 | -14.5-107 | 153.5-113 | 153.5-110 | +700 | -1250 |
| BUS | +13.5-110 | -13.5-110 | 154.5-110 | 154.5-110 | +780 | -1300 |
| BOV | +13.5-105 | -13.5-115 | 154.5-110 | 154.5-110 | +750 | -1400 |
| FAN | +13.5-107 | -13.5-112 | 154.5-110 | 154.5-110 | +800 | -1300 |
| LV | +13.5-106 | -13.5-106 | 154.5-108 | 154.5-108 | +795 | -1300 |
| CZR | +13.5-110 | -13.5-110 | 154.5-110 | 154.5-110 | +700 | -1100 |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Northern Arizona | UNLV | O | U | Northern Arizona | UNLV |
| DK | +20.5-105↗ | -20.5-115↗ | 153.5-112↗ | 153.5-108↗ | +1800↗ | -5000↗ |
| FD | +21.5-118↗ | -21.5-104↗ | 153.5-110↗ | 153.5-110↗ | +2000↗ | -7000↗ |
| MGM | +20.5-102↗ | -20.5-118↗ | 153.5-115↗ | 153.5-105↗ | +1450↗ | -5000↗ |
| BOL | +20.5-110 | -20.5-110 | 154-110 | 154-110 | +1592 | -6000 |
| BR | +21.5-112 | -21.5-112 | 153.5-113 | 153.5-109 | – | – |
| BUS | +20.5-110 | -20.5-110 | 154-110 | 154-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +21-110 | -21-110 | 153.5-120 | 153.5+100 | +1600 | -10000 |
| FAN | +21.5-115 | -21.5-105 | 154-110 | 154-110 | +2500 | -7000 |
| LV | +20.5-106 | -20.5-106 | 154-108 | 154-108 | +1592 | -6000 |
| CZR | +21-110 | -21-110 | 153.5-110 | 153.5-110 | – | – |
Best qualifying system per market and side (30+ games). Paper tracking only: these are finely cut historical angles, and some games have systems on both sides.
Favorites of 10 or more points - dominant team from last season - outscored opponents by 9+ PPG, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points - team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
All teams where the total is between 140 and 149.5 points - marginal losing team from last season who won 40-49% of their games, in the 1st 5 games of the season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a weak division 1-A conference.
Road teams against the total - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, bad team from last season (20% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
Home favorites of 10 or more points - good free throw shooting team from last season - made >=72% of their free throws, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with 2 more starters returning from last year than opponent, in the first five games of the season.
All teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 - good rebounding team from last season - outrebounded opponents by 4+ per game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a mid-major division 1-A conference.
All teams where the total is greater than or equal to 170 - in a game involving two teams that had winning records last season, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
Road teams where the first half total is >=75.5 - team that had a winning record last season, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last season.
Road underdogs of 10 or more points - good offensive team from last season - scored 77 or more points/game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, after a combined score of 165 points or more.
Home teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - with just one or fewer starters returning from last season, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 10+ losses in last 12 games.
Favorites of 10 or more points - dominant team from last season - outscored opponents by 9+ PPG, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
Home teams against the total - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 8+ wins in last 10 games, good team from last season (60% to 80%) playing a team who had a losing record last year, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
Home teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - with just one or fewer starters returning from last season, first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season poorly with 10+ losses in last 12 games.
Road teams against the total - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, bad team from last season (20% to 40%) playing a team that had a winning record last year, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
Home teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 98 or more points/game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
All teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points - team that had a good record last season (60% to 80%) playing a marginal winning team (51% to 60%), in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
Season record for all four models, KenPom, StatSharp sim, Torvik and EvanMiya, against final scores and the closing line: average miss, straight-up, against the spread, over/under and moneyline value. Updated each morning after Big Data Ball's results land.
| Season | KenPom | Sim | Torvik | EvanMiya |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weight in the blend, spreads | 37% | 11% | 26% | 26% |
| Weight in the blend, totals | 37% | 13% | 25% | 25% |
| Games graded | 116 | 118 | 119 | 118 |
| Through | Nov 2 | Nov 2 | Nov 2 | Nov 2 |
| Avg miss, marginclosing line: 9.91 | 10.39 | 14.04 | 10.37 | 10.09 |
| Avg miss, totalclosing line: 13.54 | 13.35 | 14.28 | 13.87 | 14.34 |
| Straight up | 95-2181.9% | 92-2380.0% | 98-2182.4% | 98-2083.1% |
| ATS vs close | 60-5651.7% | 63-5553.4% | 58-6148.7% | 55-6147.4% |
| ATS, 3+ pt disagreement | 26-2650.0% | 54-4554.5% | 18-2146.2% | 22-1559.5% |
| ATS, last 7 days | 60-5651.7% | 63-5553.4% | 58-6148.7% | 55-6147.4% |
| O/U vs close | 59-5750.9% | 67-5156.8% | 63-5652.9% | 62-5652.5% |
| O/U, 4+ pt disagreement | 18-869.2% | 36-2856.2% | 18-1751.4% | 21-2347.7% |
| O/U, last 7 days | 59-5750.9% | 67-5156.8% | 63-5652.9% | 62-5652.5% |
| Moneyline value bets | 14-2635.0% | 26-7126.8% | 17-2045.9% | 22-1855.0% |
| Moneyline units | -7.56 | -42.22 | -5.23 | -3.91 |
| Moneyline ROI | -18.9% | -43.5% | -14.1% | -9.8% |
| Avg miss, 1st-half margin | – | 9.87 | – | – |
Gold marks the leader in each row. ATS and O/U grade each model against the closing line: it "takes" whichever side its own number favors. Moneyline value bets take the side where the model's win chance beats the no-vig closing price by 3+ points, 1 unit at the closing price.
Each game is placed by how many models sit on the same side of the closing line, and graded on that side. The sim is measured against its usual underdog lean. This answers whether agreement against the line is an edge.
| Market | Models vs the close | Games | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| spread | all models agree, 2+ pts each | 10 | 6-4 (60.0%) |
| spread | all models agree (any margin) | 26 | 10-16 (38.5%) |
| spread | all but one agree | 45 | 22-23 (48.9%) |
| spread | split | 37 | – |
| total | all models agree, 3+ pts each | 7 | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| total | all models agree (any margin) | 33 | 19-14 (57.6%) |
| total | all but one agree | 47 | 25-22 (53.2%) |
| total | split | 31 | – |
The model blend (KenPom, the StatSharp sim, Torvik and EvanMiya, weighted by how each is doing this season, separately for spreads and totals) is compared with DraftKings' current line. A spread gap of 2.5+ points or a total gap of 4+ points flags the play. Games with two or more StatSharp systems (30+ games, best ROI 25%+) on one side are flagged as systems plays.
When KenPom and every other model available (at least three in all) sit 2+ points on the same side of a spread, or 3+ on a total, the game is logged as a consensus play even if KenPom alone is short of the threshold. All three are shown on every game next to KenPom. A play ranks higher when the sim or Torvik also has 1.5+ points on the same side, and lower when either leans the other way. The sim projects underdogs much closer than the market on nearly every game (often by 10+ points), so taken at face value it would back every dog. Its spread vote is measured against the slate's typical lean instead: it only counts when it likes a side more, or less, than it usually does. Neither flags a play on its own yet: after the first night, the sim's average miss on the final margin was well behind KenPom's and the closing line's. The Model scoreboard tracks all three, and the weighting will follow those results.
In Big Data Ball's 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2025-26 closing lines, the side a line later moved toward won 54% at the opening number on 1+ point spread moves and 59% on 2+ point total moves. At the closing number the same bets were about break-even. Getting the number early is the edge, so every play is logged with its line at flag time and graded for closing-line value.