Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 10 games · KenPom on 0 · StatSharp on 0 · built 12:02 AM CT
Every game on tonight's slate with KenPom's number next to DraftKings' line, how the line has moved, and the StatSharp systems that apply. These are leans for research, not locks. Confirm injuries and lineups before tip.
0 plays flagged (0 from the KenPom edge, 0 from StatSharp systems, 0 where every model agrees). Ranked by edge, line movement, systems support and model agreement, two per game at most. Tomorrow's early lines (*) are listed below the Top 10.
No plays cleared the thresholds today.
Games marked * tip on a later day: their lines are posted early, and the earlier number is usually the better one. Tap any game for its full breakdown: every model, our plays, intel and injuries, betting splits, StatSharp systems and the KenPom team-vs-team matchup. Spreads are the home team's number. Edge is the market minus the model blend (a weighted average of KenPom, the StatSharp sim, Torvik, EvanMiya and Action Network, with weights set by each model's season record): positive likes the home side, and on totals positive likes the over. Gold edges clear the flag thresholds (2.5 on spreads, 4 on totals). Sim is StatSharp's game simulation, T-Rank is Torvik and EM is EvanMiya; the number in brackets is that model's edge against the line, same sign rules. Plays are flagged off the blend; each model's agreement or disagreement also moves a play's rank, in proportion to its weight. The sim leans toward the underdog in nearly every game, so its vote is measured against that usual lean (+0 pts today).
| Tip CT | Game | Open | Now | Move | KenPom | Blend | Edge | Sim | T-Rank | EvanMiya | Tot open | Tot now | Move | KP total | Blend | Edge | Sim tot | TR tot | EM tot | ML away / home | Home bets / $ | Over bets / $ | Systems | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6:00 PM | Fairleigh Dickinson Knights @ Butler BulldogsLine shop › | -24.5 | -24.5 | – | – | – | +6.8 | – | – | – | 153.5 | 152.5 | -1 | – | – | -0.2 | – | – | – | +2200 / -8000 | – | – | – | high-major |
| 6:00 PM | Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks @ High Point PanthersLine shop › | -30.5 | -30.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 149.5 | 148.5 | -1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | +5000 / -100000 | – | – | – | other |
| 6:00 PM | Longwood Lancers @ Saint Joseph's HawksLine shop › | -9.5 | -9.5 | – | – | – | +12.8 | – | – | – | 149.5 | 149.5 | – | – | – | +3.0 | – | – | – | +320 / -410 | – | – | – | other |
| 6:30 PM | CSU Northridge Matadors @ Wichita St ShockersLine shop › | -14.5 | -14.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | 161.5 | 161.5 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | +950 / -1650 | – | – | – | other |
| 7:00 PM | SE Louisiana Lions @ Auburn TigersLine shop › | -26.5 | -26.5 | – | – | – | +4.1 | – | – | – | 151.5 | 151.5 | – | – | – | -1.7 | – | – | – | +3500 / -20000 | – | – | – | high-major |
| 7:00 PM | Northern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota CoyotesLine shop › | +1.5 | +2.5 | +1 | – | – | +15.2 | – | – | – | 159.5 | 160.5 | +1 | – | – | +1.5 | – | – | – | -142 / +120 | – | – | – | other |
| 8:00 PM | Radford Highlanders @ California Golden BearsLine shop › | -15.5 | -15.5 | – | – | – | +10.0 | – | – | – | 156.5 | 156.5 | – | – | – | +3.4 | – | – | – | +1100 / -2100 | – | – | – | high-major |
| 9:00 PM | Queens University Royals @ Loyola Marymount LionsLine shop › | -5.5 | -6.5 | -1 | – | – | +11.5 | – | – | – | 157.5 | 157.5 | – | – | – | +4.3 | – | – | – | +220 / -270 | – | – | – | other |
| 9:00 PM | North Dakota St Bison @ Saint Mary's GaelsLine shop › | -12.5 | -13.5 | -1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 149.5 | 148.5 | -1 | – | – | – | – | – | – | +700 / -1100 | – | – | – | other |
| 9:00 PM | Milwaukee Panthers @ Santa Clara BroncosLine shop › | -18.5 | -17.5 | +1 | – | – | +12.5 | – | – | – | 159.5 | 160.5 | +1 | – | – | -1.0 | – | – | – | +1100 / -2100 | – | – | – | other |
Line-24.5
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Edge+6.8 Butler
Line153.5 → 152.5 (-1)
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Edge-0.2 Under
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Edge+12.8 Saint Joseph's
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Edge+3.0 Over
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Edge+4.1 Auburn
Line151.5
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Edge-1.7 Under
Line+1.5 → +2.5 (+1)
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Edge+15.2 South Dakota
Line159.5 → 160.5 (+1)
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Edge+10.0 California Golden
Line156.5
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Edge+3.4 Over
Line-5.5 → -6.5 (-1)
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Edge+11.5 Loyola Marymount
Line157.5
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Edge+12.5 Santa Clara
Line159.5 → 160.5 (+1)
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Edge-1.0 Under
No games match.
Key matchups, injuries and lineup news, sharp and public money, and betting angles for today's slate, gathered each morning from Action Network, team and conference reporting, and the wider college basketball web.
The most relevant college basketball stories for today's slate, newest and breaking first. Summaries are ours; tap a headline or "Full story" for the original.
UCLA beat No. 5 Arizona 84-75 and Oklahoma lost at home to East Texas A&M as a 28.5-point favorite.
The biggest results of the first night. Illinois hung 120 on Fairleigh Dickinson with a program-record 19 threes; Florida, BYU (Rob Wright III scored 33 on Ohio State), Gonzaga and Memphis all won notable games, and UCF needed overtime to get past FGCU. The Oklahoma loss is one of the largest point-spread upsets you'll see all year.
The NIT champions return guards Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton (nearly 30 ppg combined) and add two 7-footers.
Auburn went 22-16 and missed the NCAA Tournament last year before winning the NIT, and was picked 10th in the SEC. New bigs Bukky Oboye and Narcisse Ngoy debut. SE Louisiana rebuilt its roster largely with transfers from Bryant (Ashley Sims II, Gio Sanford, Quincy Allen) and opens a tough road stretch that also includes Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
Illinois won by 75 without David Mirkovic, Gonzaga finally beat Purdue, and Miami (Ohio) pushed its regular-season streak to 32.
Also: Dan Hurley reached 200 wins at UConn, Duke won its 27th straight opener, and defending champion Florida handled Miami 77-67. Useful context for teams that blew out overmatched opponents, since early-season scores like those can inflate ratings.
Trent Perry's 21 led UCLA past Arizona despite 38 from Ivan Kharchenkov; Memphis beat No. 18 Iowa State 80-76.
Arizona's bench was badly outscored in Las Vegas. East Texas A&M's win in Norman was its first ever over a power-conference team, led by Bo Aldridge's 22. Jayden Reid scored 26 as Memphis took down Iowa State, Penny Hardaway's ninth straight opening-game win.
SportsLine's model liked Wofford +24.5 at Tennessee and Sam Houston +26.5 at Alabama; an expert backed Missouri -25.5.
A useful outside read to compare against our board: our Locks had the Tennessee side and the Sam Houston-Alabama under on the same night. Check the Results tab for how each side finished.
Nored, a Brad Stevens-era Butler point guard and NBA assistant, replaced the retired Thad Matta this spring.
Nored played in Butler's two national title games and coached with the Hawks, Pacers, Hornets and Celtics before taking over. Matta retired after four seasons with losing Big East records. Opponent Fairleigh Dickinson lost 120-45 at Illinois on opening night, worth keeping in mind for how the market prices a second straight road game against a high-major.
The newest college basketball headlines from ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo, NCAA.com and Google News, refreshed every few minutes even between board updates. Headlines only: tap one to read it at the source.
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No intel file for this date yet. The morning research run writes it before the 9 AM board.
Where the public's money and bets sit on each side, from DraftKings (pulled every run, with the move since the day's first pull), Circa (the Las Vegas book sharper bettors use, via VSiN) and Action Network. Each cell is the home side for spreads and moneylines and the over for totals: money % · bets %. Gold means money is running 15+ points ahead of bets (bigger, often sharper tickets); muted means 70%+ of bets (the public side).
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Butler -24.5 | 68% money 64% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 152.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · Butler | 1% money 67% bets | – | – |
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · High Point -30.5 | 99% money 83% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 148.5 | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
| Moneyline · High Point | 0% money 50% bets | – | – |
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Saint Joseph's -9.5 | 100% money 88% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 149.5 | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
| Moneyline · Saint Joseph's | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Wichita St -14.5 | 95% money 60% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 161.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · Wichita St | 50% money 90% bets | – | – |
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Auburn -26.5 | 47% money 78% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 151.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · Auburn | 0% money 50% bets | – | – |
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · South Dakota +2.5 | 0% money 40% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 160.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · South Dakota | 0% money 14% bets | – | – |
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · California Golden -15.5 | 96% money 60% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 156.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · California Golden | 49% money 80% bets | – | – |
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Saint Mary's -13.5 | 100% money 75% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 148.5 | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
| Moneyline · Saint Mary's | 73% money 94% bets | – | – |
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Santa Clara -17.5 | 92% money 40% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 160.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · Santa Clara | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
Best number on each side across 10 books at the last pull (Nov 4, 12:00 AM CT). Tap a price to open that bet in the book's app or site; DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM links go straight to the bet slip when the book allows it. The same links open the game for live betting after tip. Gold outlines are the sides on today's board. Lines move: check the price in the app before you bet.
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Fairleigh Dickinson | Butler | O | U | Fairleigh Dickinson | Butler |
| DK | +24.5-112↗ | -24.5-108↗ | 152.5-115↗ | 152.5-105↗ | +2200↗ | -8000↗ |
| FD | +22.5-102↗ | -22.5-120↗ | 153.5-110↗ | 153.5-110↗ | +2400↗ | -10000↗ |
| MGM | +24.5-110↗ | -24.5-110↗ | 153.5-110↗ | 153.5-110↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +24-105 | -24-115 | 154-110 | 154-110 | – | – |
| BR | +24.5-114 | -24.5-109 | 153.5-107 | 153.5-117 | – | – |
| FAN | +24-110 | -24-110 | 153-110 | 153-110 | +3000 | -10000 |
| LV | +24-101 | -24-111 | 154-108 | 154-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +24.5-110 | -24.5-110 | 150.5-110 | 150.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Maryland-Eastern Shore | High Point | O | U | Maryland-Eastern Shore | High Point |
| DK | +30.5-110↗ | -30.5-110↗ | 148.5-110↗ | 148.5-110↗ | +5000↗ | -100000↗ |
| FD | +30.5-110↗ | -30.5-110↗ | 150.5-110↗ | 150.5-110↗ | – | – |
| MGM | +30.5-110↗ | -30.5-110↗ | 148.5-110↗ | 148.5-110↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +30.5-110 | -30.5-110 | 149-105 | 149-115 | – | – |
| BR | +29.5-114 | -29.5-109 | 150.5-114 | 150.5-109 | – | – |
| FAN | +30-105 | -30-115 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | +8000 | -50000 |
| LV | +30.5-106 | -30.5-106 | 149-103 | 149-113 | – | – |
| CZR | +30.5-110 | -30.5-110 | 148.5-110 | 148.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Longwood | Saint Joseph's | O | U | Longwood | Saint Joseph's |
| DK | +9.5-108↗ | -9.5-112↗ | 149.5-108↗ | 149.5-112↗ | +320↗ | -410↗ |
| FD | +8.5-102↗ | -8.5-120↗ | 149.5-106↗ | 149.5-114↗ | +340↗ | -430↗ |
| MGM | – | – | 149.5-105↗ | 149.5-115↗ | +320↗ | -425↗ |
| BOL | +9.5-105 | -9.5-115 | 149-115 | 149-105 | – | – |
| BR | +8.5-117 | -8.5-107 | 149.5-109 | 149.5-114 | +295 | -420 |
| FAN | +9.5-110 | -9.5-110 | 149-110 | 149-110 | +340 | -450 |
| LV | +9.5-101 | -9.5-111 | 149-113 | 149-103 | – | – |
| CZR | +9.5-110 | -9.5-110 | 149.5-110 | 149.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | CSU Northridge | Wichita St | O | U | CSU Northridge | Wichita St |
| DK | +14.5-105↗ | -14.5-115↗ | 161.5-108↗ | 161.5-112↗ | +950↗ | -1650↗ |
| FD | +14.5-110↗ | -14.5-110↗ | 160.5-115↗ | 160.5-105↗ | +860↗ | -1600↗ |
| MGM | +14.5-110↗ | -14.5-110↗ | 161.5-110↗ | 161.5-110↗ | +775↗ | -1400↗ |
| BOL | +14-105 | -14-115 | 162-105 | 162-115 | – | – |
| BR | +14.5+106 | -14.5-132 | 161.5-109 | 161.5-114 | +750 | -1667 |
| BUS | +14-105 | -14-115 | 162-105 | 162-115 | – | – |
| BOV | +14.5-105 | -14.5-115 | 161.5-110 | 161.5-110 | +900 | -1900 |
| FAN | +14.5-105 | -14.5-115 | 161.5-110 | 161.5-110 | +900 | -1500 |
| LV | +14-101 | -14-111 | 162-103 | 162-113 | – | – |
| CZR | +14.5-110 | -14.5-110 | 161.5-110 | 161.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | SE Louisiana | Auburn | O | U | SE Louisiana | Auburn |
| DK | +26.5-112↗ | -26.5-108↗ | 151.5-110↗ | 151.5-110↗ | +3500↗ | -20000↗ |
| FD | +26.5-110↗ | -26.5-110↗ | 152.5-115↗ | 152.5-105↗ | +4000↗ | -30000↗ |
| MGM | +26.5-110↗ | -26.5-110↗ | 152.5-105↗ | 152.5-115↗ | – | – |
| BOL | +26-110 | -26-110 | 151.5-110 | 151.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +26.5-117 | -26.5-107 | 151.5-113 | 151.5-110 | – | – |
| FAN | +26-110 | -26-110 | 151.5-110 | 151.5-110 | +5000 | -20000 |
| LV | +26-106 | -26-106 | 151.5-108 | 151.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +26.5-110 | -26.5-110 | 151.5-110 | 151.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Northern Kentucky | South Dakota | O | U | Northern Kentucky | South Dakota |
| DK | -2.5-112↗ | +2.5-108↗ | 160.5-115↗ | 160.5-105↗ | -142↗ | +120↗ |
| FD | -2.5-110↗ | +2.5-110↗ | 161.5-110↗ | 161.5-110↗ | -142↗ | +118↗ |
| MGM | -2.5-110↗ | +2.5-110↗ | 160.5-115↗ | 160.5-105↗ | -145↗ | +120↗ |
| BOL | -3-105 | +3-115 | 160.5-115 | 160.5-105 | – | – |
| BR | -1.5-136 | +1.5+108 | 159.5-118 | 159.5-106 | -159 | +125 |
| BUS | -3-105 | +3-115 | 160.5-115 | 160.5-105 | – | – |
| BOV | -2.5-110 | +2.5-110 | 161-105 | 161-115 | -145 | +125 |
| FAN | -2.5-110 | +2.5-110 | 161-110 | 161-110 | -145 | +120 |
| LV | -3-101 | +3-111 | 160.5-113 | 160.5-103 | – | – |
| CZR | -2.5-110 | +2.5-110 | 161.5-110 | 161.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Radford | California Golden | O | U | Radford | California Golden |
| DK | +15.5-110↗ | -15.5-110↗ | 156.5-115↗ | 156.5-105↗ | +1100↗ | -2100↗ |
| FD | +15.5-110↗ | -15.5-110↗ | 157.5-115↗ | 157.5-105↗ | +980↗ | -2100↗ |
| MGM | +15.5-110↗ | -15.5-110↗ | 157.5-105↗ | 157.5-115↗ | +875↗ | -1600↗ |
| BOL | +15.5-110 | -15.5-110 | 156.5-110 | 156.5-110 | – | – |
| BR | +15.5-109 | -15.5-114 | 159.5-108 | 159.5-115 | +750 | -1667 |
| FAN | +15.5-110 | -15.5-110 | 157-110 | 157-110 | +900 | -1500 |
| LV | +15.5-106 | -15.5-106 | 156.5-108 | 156.5-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +15.5-110 | -15.5-110 | 157.5-110 | 157.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Queens University | Loyola Marymount | O | U | Queens University | Loyola Marymount |
| DK | +6.5-105↗ | -6.5-115↗ | 157.5-112↗ | 157.5-108↗ | +220↗ | -270↗ |
| FD | +6.5-104↗ | -6.5-118↗ | 157.5-115↗ | 157.5-105↗ | +235↗ | -295↗ |
| MGM | +7.5-118↗ | -7.5-102↗ | 157.5-115↗ | 157.5-105↗ | +230↗ | -285↗ |
| BOL | +7-105 | -7-115 | 158-110 | 158-110 | – | – |
| BR | +6.5-106 | -6.5-118 | 157.5-112 | 157.5-112 | +235 | -315 |
| FAN | +6.5-110 | -6.5-110 | 157.5-110 | 157.5-110 | +220 | -275 |
| LV | +7-101 | -7-111 | 158-108 | 158-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +6.5-110 | -6.5-110 | 158-110 | 158-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | North Dakota St | Saint Mary's | O | U | North Dakota St | Saint Mary's |
| DK | +13.5-118↗ | -13.5-102↗ | 148.5-112↗ | 148.5-108↗ | +700↗ | -1100↗ |
| FD | +13.5-110↗ | -13.5-110↗ | 148.5-115↗ | 148.5-105↗ | +740↗ | -1250↗ |
| MGM | +13.5-115↗ | -13.5-105↗ | 148.5-110↗ | 148.5-110↗ | +675↗ | -1100↗ |
| BOL | +13.5-110 | -13.5-110 | 149-105 | 149-115 | – | – |
| BR | +12.5-108 | -12.5-115 | 149.5-112 | 149.5-112 | +540 | -910 |
| BUS | +13.5-110 | -13.5-110 | 149-105 | 149-115 | – | – |
| BOV | +13-110 | -13-110 | 148.5-105 | 148.5-115 | +625 | -1000 |
| FAN | +13-110 | -13-110 | 148.5-110 | 148.5-110 | +650 | -1000 |
| LV | +13.5-106 | -13.5-106 | 149-103 | 149-113 | – | – |
| CZR | +13-110 | -13-110 | 148.5-110 | 148.5-110 | – | – |
| Spread | Total | ML | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Book | Milwaukee | Santa Clara | O | U | Milwaukee | Santa Clara |
| DK | +17.5-118↗ | -17.5-102↗ | 160.5-105↗ | 160.5-115↗ | +1100↗ | -2100↗ |
| FD | +17.5-110↗ | -17.5-110↗ | 159.5-110↗ | 159.5-110↗ | +1280↗ | -3500↗ |
| MGM | +17.5-115↗ | -17.5-105↗ | 159.5-115↗ | 159.5-105↗ | +1000↗ | -2000↗ |
| BOL | +17.5-110 | -17.5-110 | 160-110 | 160-110 | – | – |
| BR | +17.5-107 | -17.5-115 | 160.5-109 | 160.5-114 | +1000 | -2500 |
| BUS | +17.5-110 | -17.5-110 | 160-110 | 160-110 | – | – |
| BOV | +17.5-110 | -17.5-110 | 159-115 | 159-105 | +1600 | -10000 |
| FAN | +17.5-110 | -17.5-110 | 159.5-110 | 159.5-110 | +1500 | -3000 |
| LV | +17.5-106 | -17.5-106 | 160-108 | 160-108 | – | – |
| CZR | +17.5-110 | -17.5-110 | 159.5-110 | 159.5-110 | – | – |
Our paper plays Mon Nov 2: 52-48, average CLV +0.0 pts. Green chips cashed, red lost.
Final scores from Big Data Ball with DraftKings' closing spread and total. Gold lines show who covered and which way the total went; our paper plays for that day sit under each game.
Historical betting systems that apply to tonight's games (from StatSharp), with how they have done this season. Paper tracking only: these are finely cut historical angles, and some games have systems on both sides.
Best qualifying system per market and side (30+ games).
No StatSharp file for this date, or no games matched.
Every game with a qualifying system, graded on the side it backs against the closing line, 1 unit at -110 on spreads and totals and at the closing price on moneylines. First-half systems are logged but wait for a first-half closing line to be graded.
| Group | Record | Units | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Every game with a systemSpread 18-14 · Total 13-15 · ML 4-0 | 35-29 (54.7%) | +2.98 | +4.7% |
| Systems play (net 2+ systems, best ROI 25%+)Spread 15-10 · Total 5-7 · ML 1-0 | 21-17 (55.3%) | +1.30 | +3.4% |
| 1 system on the sideSpread 1-2 · Total 4-6 · ML 3-0 | 8-8 (50.0%) | +0.23 | +1.4% |
| 2-3 systems on the sideSpread 13-9 · Total 9-9 · ML 1-0 | 23-18 (56.1%) | +2.12 | +5.2% |
| 4+ systems on the sideSpread 4-3 | 4-3 (57.1%) | +0.64 | +9.1% |
| Best ROI under 25%Total 4-1 | 4-1 (80.0%) | +2.64 | +52.7% |
| Best ROI 25-40%Spread 7-9 · Total 1-5 · ML 2-0 | 10-14 (41.7%) | -4.35 | -18.1% |
| Best ROI 40%+Spread 11-5 · Total 8-9 · ML 2-0 | 21-14 (60.0%) | +4.69 | +13.4% |
| Systems on both sides: side with moreSpread 0-1 · Total 0-2 | 0-3 (0.0%) | -3.00 | -100.0% |
Individual system records start with the Nov 4 scrape, which saves every qualifying system for each game (until now only the best one per side was kept).
Ask about tonight's slate, our plays, results, line moves, splits or how the models and systems are doing. Answers come from a small Claude model reading only this board's data, so it can be wrong: check the tabs before acting. Research only, not betting advice.
Every play graded against the line we flagged it at, 1 unit flat at that price (paper: nothing was staked). Coch's Locks are the day's Top 10 as first published; later runs never re-rank them. CLV is points of closing line value: positive means we beat the closing number.
| Season | Plays | Record | Units | ROI | Avg CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coch's Locks (daily Top 10) | 10 | 5-5 50% | -0.49 | -4.9% | +0.00 |
| Top 5 only | 5 | 1-4 20% | -3.13 | -62.6% | +0.00 |
| Locks: spreads | 5 | 2-3 40% | -1.18 | -23.6% | +0.00 |
| Locks: totals | 5 | 3-2 60% | +0.69 | +13.8% | +0.00 |
| Every flagged play | 100 | 52-48 52% | -0.34 | -0.3% | +0.00 |
| Plays: model edge | 70 | 34-36 49% | -4.69 | -6.7% | +0.00 |
| Plays: systems | 30 | 18-12 60% | +4.35 | +14.5% | +0.00 |
| Plays: high-major | 47 | 28-19 60% | +6.65 | +14.2% | +0.00 |
| Day | Locks | Locks units | All plays | All units | CLV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Nov 2 | 5-5 50% | -0.49 | 52-48 52% | -0.34 | +0.00 |
| Last 7 days | 5-5 50% | -0.49 | 52-48 52% | -0.34 | +0.00 |
Season record for every model (KenPom, StatSharp sim, Torvik, EvanMiya, Action Network) and our blend, against final scores and the closing line: average miss, straight-up, against the spread, over/under and moneyline value. Updated each morning after Big Data Ball's results land.
| Season | KenPom | Sim | Torvik | EvanMiya | Action |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weight in the blend, spreads | 32% | 11% | 21% | 21% | 15% |
| Weight in the blend, totals | 32% | 12% | 20% | 20% | 16% |
| Games graded | 116 | 119 | 119 | 119 | 2 |
| Through | Nov 2 | Nov 2 | Nov 2 | Nov 2 | Nov 2 |
| Avg miss, marginclosing line: 10.61 | 10.39 | 13.95 | 10.37 | 10.08 | 15.15 |
| Avg miss, totalclosing line: 12.66 | 13.35 | 14.25 | 13.87 | 14.33 | 8.05 |
| Straight up | 95-2181.9% | 93-2380.2% | 98-2182.4% | 99-2083.2% | 1-150.0% |
| ATS vs close | 60-5651.7% | 64-5553.8% | 58-6148.7% | 55-6247.0% | 0-20.0% |
| ATS, 3+ pt disagreement | 26-2650.0% | 54-4554.5% | 18-2146.2% | 22-1657.9% | 0-10.0% |
| ATS, last 7 days | 60-5651.7% | 64-5553.8% | 58-6148.7% | 55-6247.0% | 0-20.0% |
| O/U vs close | 59-5750.9% | 68-5157.1% | 63-5652.9% | 63-5652.9% | 2-0100.0% |
| O/U, 4+ pt disagreement | 18-869.2% | 37-2856.9% | 18-1751.4% | 22-2348.9% | – |
| O/U, last 7 days | 59-5750.9% | 68-5157.1% | 63-5652.9% | 63-5652.9% | 2-0100.0% |
| Moneyline value bets | 14-2635.0% | 27-7127.6% | 17-2045.9% | 22-1953.7% | 0-10.0% |
| Moneyline units | -7.56 | -41.60 | -5.23 | -4.91 | -1.00 |
| Moneyline ROI | -18.9% | -42.5% | -14.1% | -12.0% | -100.0% |
| Avg miss, 1st-half margin | – | 9.80 | – | – | – |
Gold marks the leader in each row. ATS and O/U grade each model against the closing line: it "takes" whichever side its own number favors. Moneyline value bets take the side where the model's win chance beats the no-vig closing price by 3+ points, 1 unit at the closing price.
Each game is placed by how many models sit on the same side of the closing line, and graded on that side. The sim is measured against its usual underdog lean. This answers whether agreement against the line is an edge.
| Market | Models vs the close | Games | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| spread | all models agree, 2+ pts each | 10 | 6-4 (60.0%) |
| spread | all models agree (any margin) | 26 | 10-16 (38.5%) |
| spread | all but one agree | 46 | 22-24 (47.8%) |
| spread | split | 37 | – |
| total | all models agree, 3+ pts each | 7 | 4-3 (57.1%) |
| total | all models agree (any margin) | 34 | 20-14 (58.8%) |
| total | all but one agree | 47 | 25-22 (53.2%) |
| total | split | 31 | – |
Action Network's money data, graded on the side it points to against the closing line. "Public side" is the record of the team taking 70%+ of bets; fading it wins the reverse.
| Signal | Market | Games | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Action Network: Big money (money % 15+ above bets %) | spread | 49 | 27-22 (55.1%) |
| Action Network: Big money (money % 15+ above bets %) | total | 23 | 9-14 (39.1%) |
| Action Network: Public side (70%+ of bets) | spread | 72 | 33-39 (45.8%) |
| Action Network: Action Network sharp money signal | spread | 2 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
| Action Network: Action Network sharp money signal | total | 2 | 1-1 (50.0%) |
The model blend (KenPom, the StatSharp sim, Torvik, EvanMiya and Action Network, weighted by how each is doing this season, separately for spreads and totals) is compared with DraftKings' current line. A spread gap of 2.5+ points or a total gap of 4+ points flags the play. Games with two or more StatSharp systems (30+ games, best ROI 25%+) on one side are flagged as systems plays.
When KenPom and every other model available (at least three in all) sit 2+ points on the same side of a spread, or 3+ on a total, the game is logged as a consensus play even if KenPom alone is short of the threshold. All three are shown on every game next to KenPom. A play ranks higher when the sim or Torvik also has 1.5+ points on the same side, and lower when either leans the other way. The sim projects underdogs much closer than the market on nearly every game (often by 10+ points), so taken at face value it would back every dog. Its spread vote is measured against the slate's typical lean instead: it only counts when it likes a side more, or less, than it usually does. Neither flags a play on its own yet: after the first night, the sim's average miss on the final margin was well behind KenPom's and the closing line's. The Model scoreboard tracks all three, and the weighting will follow those results.
In Big Data Ball's 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2025-26 closing lines, the side a line later moved toward won 54% at the opening number on 1+ point spread moves and 59% on 2+ point total moves. At the closing number the same bets were about break-even. Getting the number early is the edge, so every play is logged with its line at flag time and graded for closing-line value.
A team that is 3+ games in with a 75%+ win rate, a KenPom strength of schedule ranked #200 or worse, and no opponent so far within 50 spots of tonight's, meeting a top-100 KenPom team, is flagged. The board takes the opponent on the spread as a paper "schedule test" play and tracks its record.
| High Point spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -30.5 | 148.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread –, total –. Moneyline Maryland-Eastern Shore +5000 · High Point -100000.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · High Point -30.5 | 99% money 83% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 148.5 | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
| Moneyline · High Point | 0% money 50% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| Saint Mary's spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -13.5 | 148.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread –, total –. Moneyline North Dakota St +700 · Saint Mary's -1100.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Saint Mary's -13.5 | 100% money 75% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 148.5 | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
| Moneyline · Saint Mary's | 73% money 94% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| Butler spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -24.5 | 152.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread +6.8, total -0.2. Moneyline Fairleigh Dickinson +2200 · Butler -8000.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Butler -24.5 | 68% money 64% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 152.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · Butler | 1% money 67% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| Wichita St spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -14.5 | 161.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread –, total –. Moneyline CSU Northridge +950 · Wichita St -1650.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Wichita St -14.5 | 95% money 60% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 161.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · Wichita St | 50% money 90% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| Saint Joseph's spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -9.5 | 149.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread +12.8, total +3.0. Moneyline Longwood +320 · Saint Joseph's -410.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Saint Joseph's -9.5 | 100% money 88% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 149.5 | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
| Moneyline · Saint Joseph's | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| Santa Clara spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -17.5 | 160.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread +12.5, total -1.0. Moneyline Milwaukee +1100 · Santa Clara -2100.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Santa Clara -17.5 | 92% money 40% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 160.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · Santa Clara | 100% money 100% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| Loyola Marymount spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -6.5 | 157.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread +11.5, total +4.3. Moneyline Queens University +220 · Loyola Marymount -270.
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| South Dakota spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | +2.5 | 160.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread +15.2, total +1.5. Moneyline Northern Kentucky -142 · South Dakota +120.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · South Dakota +2.5 | 0% money 40% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 160.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · South Dakota | 0% money 14% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| California Golden spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -15.5 | 156.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread +10.0, total +3.4. Moneyline Radford +1100 · California Golden -2100.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · California Golden -15.5 | 96% money 60% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 156.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · California Golden | 49% money 80% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.
| Auburn spread | Total | |
|---|---|---|
| Line (DK) | -26.5 | 151.5 |
Edge vs the blend: spread +4.1, total -1.7. Moneyline SE Louisiana +3500 · Auburn -20000.
| DK | Circa | Action | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread · Auburn -26.5 | 47% money 78% bets | – | – |
| Total · Over 151.5 | – | – | – |
| Moneyline · Auburn | 0% money 50% bets | – | – |
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom team stats arrive with the morning run.