Wednesday, November 4, 2026 · 10 games · KenPom on 9 · StatSharp on 6 · built 9:00 AM CT
College Basketball Board
Every game on tonight's slate with KenPom's number next to DraftKings' line, how the line has moved, and the StatSharp systems that apply. These are leans for research, not locks. Confirm injuries and lineups before tip.
Paper mode through Nov 23. Every play is logged at 0 units while ratings are still mostly preseason. Nothing here is a recommendation.
Top 8 for Wed Nov 4
8 plays flagged (4 from the KenPom edge, 4 from StatSharp systems, 0 where every model agrees). Ranked by edge, line movement, systems support and model agreement, two per game at most. Tomorrow's early lines (*) are listed below the Top 10.
1
Santa Clara Broncos -16.5
Milwaukee Panthers @ Santa Clara Broncos · 9:00 PM CT
3.7 ptsprice -112
The model blend has Santa Clara by 20.2; DK has Santa Clara by 16.5, so 3.7 pts of value on Santa Clara. Line moved -18.5 to -16.5 (toward Milwaukee). 4 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 41%). 1 StatSharp system on the other side. KenPom has Santa Clara by 18 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Santa Clara by 18 (agrees); Torvik has Santa Clara by 19 (agrees); EvanMiya has Santa Clara by 23 (agrees). DraftKings: 92% of the handle and 40% of the bets on this side.
spreadotheragainst the moveStatSharp +4/41% -1all 4 models agreesim agreesTorvik agreesEvanMiya agreesbig money agreesearly season
The model blend projects 157 vs a DK total of 162.5: 5.9 pts toward the under. Total moved 159.5 to 162.5. KenPom 157 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 152 (agrees); Torvik 159 (agrees); EvanMiya 157 (agrees). Action Network: 71% of the money and 69% of the bets on this side.
totalotheragainst the moveall 4 models agreesim agreesTorvik agreesEvanMiya agreesearly season
Longwood Lancers @ Saint Joseph's Hawks · 6:00 PM CT
5.5 ptsprice -105
The model blend projects 146 vs a DK total of 151.5: 5.5 pts toward the under. Total moved 149.5 to 151.5. KenPom 147 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 147 (agrees); Torvik 144 (agrees); EvanMiya 146 (agrees). DraftKings: 0% of the handle and 0% of the bets on this side.
totalotheragainst the moveall 4 models agreesim agreesTorvik agreesEvanMiya agreesearly season
North Dakota St Bison @ Saint Mary's Gaels · 9:00 PM CT
systemsprice -110
The model blend has Saint Mary's by 11.5; DK has Saint Mary's by 13.5, so 2.0 pts of value on Saint Mary's. Line moved -12.5 to -13.5 (toward Saint Mary's). 6 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 45%). KenPom has Saint Mary's by 12 (disagrees); StatSharp's sim has Saint Mary's by 7; Torvik has Saint Mary's by 13; EvanMiya has Saint Mary's by 8 (disagrees). DraftKings: 100% of the handle and 75% of the bets on this side.
spreadotherwith the moveStatSharp +6/45%systems playEvanMiya disagreesbig money agreesearly season
The model blend has Loyola Marymount by 5.8; DK has Loyola Marymount by 8.5, so 2.7 pts of value on Queens. Line moved -5.5 to -8.5 (toward Loyola Marymount). KenPom has Loyola Marymount by 5 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Queens by 1 (agrees); Torvik has Loyola Marymount by 8; EvanMiya has Loyola Marymount by 5 (agrees).
spreadotheragainst the movesim agreesEvanMiya agreesearly season
The model blend projects 155 vs a DK total of 156.5: 1.7 pts toward the over. Total moved 153.5 to 156.5. 2 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 36%). KenPom 149 (disagrees); StatSharp's sim 149 (disagrees); Torvik 169 (agrees); EvanMiya 154 (disagrees). Action Network: 29% of the money and 32% of the bets on this side.
totalhigh-majorwith the moveStatSharp +2/36%systems playsim disagreesTorvik agreesEvanMiya disagreesearly season
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks @ High Point Panthers · 6:00 PM CT
systemsprice -108
The model blend has High Point by 31.4; DK has High Point by 33.5, so 2.1 pts of value on Maryland Eastern Shore. Line moved -30.5 to -33.5 (toward High Point). 5 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 42%). KenPom has High Point by 28 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has High Point by 27; Torvik has High Point by 35 (disagrees); EvanMiya has High Point by 32 (agrees). DraftKings: 1% of the handle and 17% of the bets on this side.
spreadotheragainst the moveStatSharp +5/42%systems playTorvik disagreesEvanMiya agreesbig money againstearly season
The model blend has Butler by 25.1; DK has Butler by 27.5, so 2.4 pts of value on Fairleigh Dickinson. Line moved -24.5 to -27.5 (toward Butler). 9 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 57%). KenPom has Butler by 21 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Butler by 13 (agrees); Torvik has Butler by 29 (disagrees); EvanMiya has Butler by 30 (disagrees). DraftKings: 32% of the handle and 36% of the bets on this side.
spreadhigh-majoragainst the moveStatSharp +9/57%systems playsim agreesTorvik disagreesEvanMiya disagreesearly season
Games marked * tip on a later day: their lines are posted early, and the earlier number is usually the better one. Tap any game for its full breakdown: every model, our plays, intel and injuries, betting splits, StatSharp systems and the KenPom team-vs-team matchup. Spreads are the home team's number. Edge is the market minus the model blend (a weighted average of KenPom, the StatSharp sim, Torvik, EvanMiya and Action Network, with weights set by each model's season record): positive likes the home side, and on totals positive likes the over. Gold edges clear the flag thresholds (2.5 on spreads, 4 on totals). Sim is StatSharp's game simulation, T-Rank is Torvik and EM is EvanMiya; the number in brackets is that model's edge against the line, same sign rules. Plays are flagged off the blend; each model's agreement or disagreement also moves a play's rank, in proportion to its weight. The sim leans toward the underdog in nearly every game, so its vote is measured against that usual lean (+6.5 pts today).
Northern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota CoyotesLine shop ›
+1.5
+2.5
+1
-1.0
+0.7
+1.8
+2.0 (+0.5)
-1.0 (+3.5)
+1.0 (+1.5)
159.5
162.5
+3
157.0
156.6
-5.9
152.0 (-10.5)
159.0 (-3.5)
156.6 (-5.9)
-148 / +124
–
31% / 29%
–
other
8:00 PM
Radford Highlanders @ California Golden BearsLine shop ›
-15.5
-15.5
–
-16.0
-16.6
+1.1
-8.0 (-7.5)
-20.0 (+4.5)
-15.4 (-0.1)
156.5
157.5
+1
154.0
154.0
-3.5
158.0 (+0.5)
154.0 (-3.5)
151.6 (-5.9)
+1000 / -1800
–
–
–
high-major
9:00 PM
Queens University Royals @ Loyola Marymount LionsLine shop ›
-5.5
-8.5
-3
-5.0
-5.8
-2.7
+1.0 (-9.5)
-8.0 (-0.5)
-4.8 (-3.7)
157.5
160.5
+3
159.0
159.2
-1.3
159.0 (-1.5)
160.0 (-0.5)
158.8 (-1.7)
+270 / -340
–
–
–
other
9:00 PM
North Dakota St Bison @ Saint Mary's GaelsLine shop ›
-12.5
-13.5
-1
-12.0
-11.5
-2.0
-7.0 (-6.5)
-13.0 (-0.5)
-8.3 (-5.2)
149.5
148.5
-1
146.0
146.4
-2.1
151.0 (+2.5)
143.0 (-5.5)
147.3 (-1.2)
+700 / -1100
72% / 72%
42% / 17%
Saint Mary's 6
other
9:00 PM
Milwaukee Panthers @ Santa Clara BroncosLine shop ›
-18.5
-16.5
+2
-18.0
-20.2
+3.7
-18.0 (+1.5)
-19.0 (+2.5)
-22.7 (+6.2)
159.5
160.5
+1
160.0
160.1
-0.4
162.0 (+1.5)
159.0 (-1.5)
160.3 (-0.2)
+1100 / -2100
76% / 88%
21% / 18%
Santa Clara 4, Milwaukee 1
other
6:00 PM CTOn the boardhigh-major
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights@ Butler Bulldogs
Spread Butler
Line-24.5 → -27.5(-3)
KP-21.0
Sim-13.0(-14.5)
TR-29.0(+1.5)
EM-30.1(+2.6)
Blend-25.1
Edge-2.4 Fairleigh Dickinson
Total
Line153.5 → 156.5(+3)
KP149.0
Sim149.0(-7.5)
TR169.0(+12.5)
EM153.5(-3.0)
Blend154.8
Edge-1.7 Under
ML Fairleigh Dickinson +3500 · Butler -20000StatSharp: Fairleigh Dickinson 9, Over 2Public: Butler 80% bets / 92% $ · Over 32% / 29% $Sim 1H: Butler -5.0, total 71.0Line shop ›
6:00 PM CTOn the boardother
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks@ High Point Panthers
Spread High Point
Line-30.5 → -33.5(-3)
KP-28.0
Sim-27.0(-6.5)
TR-35.0(+1.5)
EM-31.9(-1.6)
Blend-31.4
Edge-2.1 Maryland Eastern Shore
Total
Line149.5 → 147.5(-2)
KP144.0
Sim147.0(-0.5)
TR145.0(-2.5)
EM144.9(-2.6)
Blend144.9
Edge-2.6 Under
ML Maryland Eastern Shore +5000 · High Point -100000StatSharp: Maryland Eastern Shore 5Public: High Point 58% bets / 77% $ · Over 40% / 30% $Sim 1H: High Point -13.0, total 69.0Line shop ›
6:00 PM CTOn the boardother
Longwood Lancers@ Saint Joseph's Hawks
Spread Saint Joseph's
Line-9.5 → -10.5(-1)
KP-9.0
Sim-7.0(-3.5)
TR-10.0(-0.5)
EM-8.2(-2.3)
Blend-9.6
Edge-0.9 Longwood
Total
Line149.5 → 151.5(+2)
KP147.0
Sim147.0(-4.5)
TR144.0(-7.5)
EM145.8(-5.7)
Blend146.0
Edge-5.5 Under
ML Longwood +455 · Saint Joseph's -625Sim 1H: Saint Joseph's -4.0, total 70.0Line shop ›
6:30 PM CTother
CSU Northridge Matadors@ Wichita St Shockers
Spread Wichita St
Line-14.5
KP-13.0
Sim–
TR-18.0(+3.5)
EM-18.9(+4.4)
Blend-16.1
Edge+1.6 Wichita St
Total
Line161.5 → 160.5(-1)
KP159.0
Sim–
TR160.0(-0.5)
EM155.5(-5.0)
Blend158.3
Edge-2.2 Under
ML CSUN +850 · Wichita St -1450Public: Wichita St 77% bets / 63% $ · Over 29% / 32% $Line shop ›
ML Northern Kentucky -148 · South Dakota +124Public: Over 31% / 29% $Sim 1H: South Dakota +1.0, total 73.0Line shop ›
8:00 PM CThigh-major
Radford Highlanders@ California Golden Bears
Spread California
Line-15.5
KP-16.0
Sim-8.0(-7.5)
TR-20.0(+4.5)
EM-15.4(-0.1)
Blend-16.6
Edge+1.1 California
Total
Line156.5 → 157.5(+1)
KP154.0
Sim158.0(+0.5)
TR154.0(-3.5)
EM151.6(-5.9)
Blend154.0
Edge-3.5 Under
ML Radford +1000 · California -1800Sim 1H: California -3.0, total 75.0Line shop ›
9:00 PM CTOn the boardother
Queens University Royals@ Loyola Marymount Lions
Spread Loyola Marymount
Line-5.5 → -8.5(-3)
KP-5.0
Sim+1.0(-9.5)
TR-8.0(-0.5)
EM-4.8(-3.7)
Blend-5.8
Edge-2.7 Queens
Total
Line157.5 → 160.5(+3)
KP159.0
Sim159.0(-1.5)
TR160.0(-0.5)
EM158.8(-1.7)
Blend159.2
Edge-1.3 Under
ML Queens +270 · Loyola Marymount -340Sim 1H: Loyola Marymount +0.0, total 76.0Line shop ›
9:00 PM CTOn the boardother
North Dakota St Bison@ Saint Mary's Gaels
Spread Saint Mary's
Line-12.5 → -13.5(-1)
KP-12.0
Sim-7.0(-6.5)
TR-13.0(-0.5)
EM-8.3(-5.2)
Blend-11.5
Edge-2.0 North Dakota St
Total
Line149.5 → 148.5(-1)
KP146.0
Sim151.0(+2.5)
TR143.0(-5.5)
EM147.3(-1.2)
Blend146.4
Edge-2.1 Under
ML North Dakota St +700 · Saint Mary's -1100StatSharp: Saint Mary's 6Public: Saint Mary's 72% bets / 72% $ · Over 42% / 17% $Sim 1H: Saint Mary's -2.0, total 72.0Line shop ›
9:00 PM CTOn the boardother
Milwaukee Panthers@ Santa Clara Broncos
Spread Santa Clara
Line-18.5 → -16.5(+2)
KP-18.0
Sim-18.0(+1.5)
TR-19.0(+2.5)
EM-22.7(+6.2)
Blend-20.2
Edge+3.7 Santa Clara
Total
Line159.5 → 160.5(+1)
KP160.0
Sim162.0(+1.5)
TR159.0(-1.5)
EM160.3(-0.2)
Blend160.1
Edge-0.4 Under
ML Milwaukee +1100 · Santa Clara -2100StatSharp: Santa Clara 4, Milwaukee 1Public: Santa Clara 76% bets / 88% $ · Over 21% / 18% $Sim 1H: Santa Clara -8.0, total 78.0Line shop ›
No games match.
News & intel
Key matchups, injuries and lineup news, sharp and public money, and betting angles for today's slate, gathered each morning from Action Network, team and conference reporting, and the wider college basketball web.
Top stories
The most relevant college basketball stories for today's slate, newest and breaking first. Summaries are ours; tap a headline or "Full story" for the original.
Status updates touch Auburn, Arizona, USF, Green Bay, North Texas and South Alabama before this week's games.
Read more
Auburn's Freeman is probable and Rubstavicius is listed out on eligibility. Arizona has two forwards questionable for Thursday. USF is missing two players and Green Bay two more. North Texas's Holmes and South Alabama's Law are also out, in games projected within a few points.
Southeastern Louisiana Lions @ Auburn TigersCal Poly Mustangs @ Arizona WildcatsSouth Florida Bulls @ DePaul Blue DemonsinjuryFull story at Action Network ↗
Staff picks target unders in Butler and South Dakota plus North Dakota State against Saint Mary's.
Read more
On a thin slate the staff leaned on Action's total model at Butler, a rebounding system in Vermillion, and Saint Mary's overtime turnaround under a new coach. All three positions go against the market's direction, so they work as a contrarian read on today's moves.
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights @ Butler BulldogsNorthern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota CoyotesNorth Dakota State Bison @ Saint Mary's GaelspreviewtotalsFull story at Action Network ↗
RotoWire reports Gabe Nesmith is expected to miss at least a few months after right ankle surgery.
Read more
Vanderbilt hosts Wake Forest in Thursday's top game with projections of 11 to 17 points. The depth loss matters beyond this one line, though no spread was posted at last check. The report is from a single source.
UCLA beat Arizona 84-75 and Illinois routed FDU while playing without its All-American.
Read more
Monday's results reset two Thursday numbers. Arizona hosts Cal Poly after the loss, and Illinois hosts Penn after a 19-three night but without David Mirkovic. FDU's 75-point loss also feeds today's Butler spread.
Cal Poly Mustangs @ Arizona WildcatsPenn Quakers @ Illinois Fighting IlliniFairleigh Dickinson Knights @ Butler BulldogsresultsinjuryFull story at CBS Sports ↗
The NIT champions return guards Tahaad Pettiford and Kevin Overton (nearly 30 ppg combined) and add two 7-footers.
Read more
Auburn went 22-16 and missed the NCAA Tournament last year before winning the NIT, and was picked 10th in the SEC. New bigs Bukky Oboye and Narcisse Ngoy debut. SE Louisiana rebuilt its roster largely with transfers from Bryant (Ashley Sims II, Gio Sanford, Quincy Allen) and opens a tough road stretch that also includes Ole Miss and Texas A&M.
Illinois won by 75 without David Mirkovic, Gonzaga finally beat Purdue, and Miami (Ohio) pushed its regular-season streak to 32.
Read more
Also: Dan Hurley reached 200 wins at UConn, Duke won its 27th straight opener, and defending champion Florida handled Miami 77-67. Useful context for teams that blew out overmatched opponents, since early-season scores like those can inflate ratings.
Trent Perry's 21 led UCLA past Arizona despite 38 from Ivan Kharchenkov; Memphis beat No. 18 Iowa State 80-76.
Read more
Arizona's bench was badly outscored in Las Vegas. East Texas A&M's win in Norman was its first ever over a power-conference team, led by Bo Aldridge's 22. Jayden Reid scored 26 as Memphis took down Iowa State, Penny Hardaway's ninth straight opening-game win.
The Clemson transfer lost eligibility when the NCAA won a stay; Action still lists him questionable.
Read more
Godfrey was projected to start at power forward, and a hearing was still to come as of this September report. He remains listed questionable for Cal Poly, which makes him a watch item for Arizona's frontcourt pricing beyond Thursday.
Nored, a Brad Stevens-era Butler point guard and NBA assistant, replaced the retired Thad Matta this spring.
Read more
Nored played in Butler's two national title games and coached with the Hawks, Pacers, Hornets and Celtics before taking over. Matta retired after four seasons with losing Big East records. Opponent Fairleigh Dickinson lost 120-45 at Illinois on opening night, worth keeping in mind for how the market prices a second straight road game against a high-major.
SportsLine's model liked Wofford +24.5 at Tennessee and Sam Houston +26.5 at Alabama; an expert backed Missouri -25.5.
Read more
A useful outside read to compare against our board: our Locks had the Tennessee side and the Sam Houston-Alabama under on the same night. Check the Results tab for how each side finished.
The newest college basketball headlines from ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo, NCAA.com and Google News, refreshed every few minutes even between board updates. Headlines only: tap one to read it at the source.
Loading the latest headlines…
Today's intel
Thin 10-game D-I slate with no ranked teams. Butler's five-point move and a South Dakota total four points above every model are the main market stories; Saint Mary's first post-Bennett stretch has the widest spread of opinions. Paper mode: research leans only.
Injury / lineupinjuryeligibility
Southeastern Louisiana @ Auburn
Auburn: Freeman probable; Rubstavicius status conflicts
Owen Freeman is probable with a foot issue. Action lists Mantas Rubstavicius out indefinitely (eligibility), while Covers has him questionable for a non-injury reason.
Angle: Line moved -26.5 to -28.5 with 96% of money on Auburn. Sources disagree on Rubstavicius, so confirm before tip.
Illinois without Mirkovic for Thursday's Penn game
David Mirkovic is out indefinitely after August foot surgery and a weekend appendectomy, per CBS. Illinois still beat FDU 120-45 with a program-record 19 threes.
Angle: Projections range from Illinois by 21 to 33; the opener may inflate the number without its All-American. Line was not yet checked at pull time.
RotoWire reports Gabe Nesmith had right ankle surgery and is expected to miss at least a few months. It also marks McDowell and Barrett with undisclosed notes.
Angle: Headline game Thursday: KenPom Vandy by 15, T-Rank 11.3, EvanMiya 17.5. Treat the McDowell and Barrett notes as unconfirmed.
Butler spread jumped five points; models split widely
Consensus moved Butler from -20.5 to -25.5 and the total from 151.5 to 155.5. KenPom has Butler by 21, T-Rank by 28.9, EvanMiya by 30.1, and the StatSharp sim by only 13.
Angle: The biggest move on the slate, with a 17-point model range. Action's PRO model sits near 149 on the total; its writer backed the under at 153.5 before the rise.
Only a few teams meet the soft-schedule filter and all are 0-0 or 1-0, so SOS ranks reflect one game. Thursday's matches are North Texas, USF, DePaul, Wake Forest, Vanderbilt and Penn.
Angle: Ignore this flag until teams have played several games.
Total climbed four while every model sits below it
The total rose from 158.5 to 162.5 and NKU went from -1.5 to -2.5. KenPom 157, T-Rank 159, EvanMiya 156.6, StatSharp sim 152, and the sim shows a 10.5-point under edge.
Angle: Largest total disagreement on the board. Against that, 1,125 tracked bets and Action's writer also lean under, so the number may already reflect it by tip.
Gaels in first year after Bennett; projections range 8 to 19
Mickey McConnell replaced Randy Bennett and Saint Mary's needed overtime to beat Illinois State two days ago. Market -13.5; KenPom -19, T-Rank -13.2, EvanMiya -8.3, sim -7.
Angle: KenPom likes the Gaels; the two others that differ most like the Bison. Action's staff took NDSU +13.5 citing the short turnaround, while StatSharp shows 6 qualifying systems on Saint Mary's.
Compiled 7:53 AM CT from public reporting and subscriptions; summaries, not copies. Follow the links for the full stories, and confirm injuries before tip.
Betting splits
Where the public's money and bets sit on each side, from DraftKings (pulled every run, with the move since the day's first pull), Circa (the Las Vegas book sharper bettors use, via VSiN) and Action Network. Each cell is the home side for spreads and moneylines and the over for totals: money % · bets %. Gold means money is running 15+ points ahead of bets (bigger, often sharper tickets); muted means 70%+ of bets (the public side).
6:00 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights @ Butler Bulldogs
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · Butler -27.5
68% money 64% bets
–
92% money 80% bets
Total · Over 156.5
–
–
29% money 32% bets
Moneyline · Butler
1% money 67% bets
–
33% money 91% bets
6:00 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks @ High Point Panthers
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · High Point -33.5
99% money 83% bets
–
77% money 58% bets
Total · Over 147.5
100% money 100% bets
–
30% money 40% bets
Moneyline · High Point
0% money 50% bets
–
–
big money: High Point
6:00 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
Longwood Lancers @ Saint Joseph's Hawks
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · Saint Joseph's -10.5
100% money 88% bets
–
–
Total · Over 151.5
100% money 100% bets
–
–
Moneyline · Saint Joseph's
100% money 100% bets
–
–
6:30 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
CSU Northridge Matadors @ Wichita St Shockers
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · Wichita St -14.5
95% money 60% bets
100% money 100% bets
63% money 77% bets
Total · Over 160.5
–
100% money 100% bets
32% money 29% bets
Moneyline · Wichita St
50% money 90% bets
100% money 100% bets
93% money 96% bets
big money: Wichita St
7:00 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
SE Louisiana Lions @ Auburn Tigers
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · Auburn -29.5
47% money 78% bets
–
–
Total · Over 151.5
–
–
–
Moneyline · Auburn
0% money 50% bets
–
–
big money: SE Louisiana
7:00 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
Northern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota Coyotes
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · South Dakota +2.5
0% money 40% bets
–
–
Total · Over 162.5
–
100% money 100% bets
29% money 31% bets
Moneyline · South Dakota
0% money 14% bets
1% money 67% bets
3% money 27% bets
big money: Northern Kentucky
8:00 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
Radford Highlanders @ California Golden Bears
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · California -15.5
96% money 60% bets
–
–
Total · Over 157.5
–
–
–
Moneyline · California
49% money 80% bets
–
–
big money: California
9:00 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
North Dakota St Bison @ Saint Mary's Gaels
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · Saint Mary's -13.5
100% money 75% bets
–
72% money 72% bets
Total · Over 148.5
100% money 100% bets
–
17% money 42% bets
Moneyline · Saint Mary's
73% money 94% bets
100% money 100% bets
93% money 95% bets
big money: Saint Mary's
9:00 PM CTDraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
Milwaukee Panthers @ Santa Clara Broncos
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · Santa Clara -16.5
92% money 40% bets
–
88% money 76% bets
Total · Over 160.5
–
–
18% money 21% bets
Moneyline · Santa Clara
100% money 100% bets
–
83% money 94% bets
big money: Santa Clara
Line shop
Best number on each side across 10 books at the last pull (Nov 4, 9:00 AM CT). Tap a price to open that bet in the book's app or site; DraftKings, FanDuel and BetMGM links go straight to the bet slip when the book allows it. The same links open the game for live betting after tip. Gold outlines are the sides on today's board. Lines move: check the price in the app before you bet.
Close Virginia Cavaliers -31.5 · Drexel Dragons coveredTotal 142.5 · Over (149)ML Virginia Cavaliers -20000
Drexel Dragons +31.5 · Cashed · CLV +0.0
Coppin State Eagles 54Virginia Tech Hokies 88
Close Virginia Tech Hokies -31.5 · Virginia Tech Hokies coveredTotal 150.5 · Under (142)ML Virginia Tech Hokies -10000
Under 150.5 · Cashed · CLV +0.0
Regis University 48Wyoming Cowboys 95
Close Wyoming Cowboys – · No closing spreadTotal – · no closing total (143)
Final scores from Big Data Ball with DraftKings' closing spread and total. Gold lines show who covered and which way the total went; our paper plays for that day sit under each game.
Trends & systems
Historical betting systems that apply to tonight's games (from StatSharp), with how they have done this season. Paper tracking only: these are finely cut historical angles, and some games have systems on both sides.
Tonight
Best qualifying system per market and side (30+ games).
6:00 PM CTMaryland-Eastern Shore Hawks @ High Point Panthers
SpreadMaryland Eastern Shore
41-14 · ROI +42.3% · 5 systems
Any team - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 8+ ATS losses in last 10 games against opponent first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 7+ wins in last 8 games.
1st half spreadMaryland Eastern Shore
41-14 · ROI +42.3% · 1 system
Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
1st half totalOver
107-60 · ROI +22.3% · 2 systems
Home teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 - good shooting team from last season - made >=45% of their shot attempts, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
Underdogs of 10 or more points - after a blowout loss by 30 points or more, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
TotalOver
49-20 · ROI +35.6% · 2 systems
Road teams against the total - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, bad team from last season who won only 20% to 40% of their games, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
1st half spreadFairleigh Dickinson
71-36 · ROI +26.7% · 1 system
Home favorites of 11 or more points vs. the first half line - after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
1st half totalOver
35-12 · ROI +42.2% · 1 system
Road teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - poor shooting team from last season - made <=42% of their shot attempts, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
1st half totalUnder
50-23 · ROI +30.8% · 3 systems
Home teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 98 or more points/game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
6:00 PM CTLongwood Lancers @ Saint Joseph's Hawks
1st half totalOver
77-40 · ROI +25.6% · 6 systems
Home teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
7:00 PM CTNorthern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota Coyotes
1st half totalUnder
48-19 · ROI +36.8% · 1 system
Road teams where the first half total is >=75.5 - team that had a winning record last season, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
9:00 PM CTNorth Dakota St Bison @ Saint Mary's Gaels
SpreadSaint Mary's
41-13 · ROI +44.9% · 6 systems
Favorites of 10 or more points - top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
9:00 PM CTMilwaukee Panthers @ Santa Clara Broncos
SpreadSanta Clara
42-15 · ROI +40.7% · 4 systems
Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points - dominant team from last season - outscored opponents by 9+ PPG, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
SpreadMilwaukee
84-41 · ROI +28.3% · 1 system
Any team - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 77 or more points/game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more.
1st half spreadSanta Clara
53-23 · ROI +33.1% · 1 system
A home team vs. the 1rst half line - poor foul drawing team from last season - attempted <=18 free throws/game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, team from a second tier division 1-A conference against a team from a mid-major conference.
1st half totalUnder
250-165 · ROI +15.0% · 1 system
All teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - after allowing 85 points or more, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
Season tracking
Every game with a qualifying system, graded on the side it backs against the closing line, 1 unit at -110 on spreads and totals and at the closing price on moneylines. First-half systems are logged but wait for a first-half closing line to be graded.
Group
Record
Units
ROI
Every game with a systemSpread 22-14 · Total 18-17 · ML 4-0
44-31 (58.7%)
+9.16
+12.2%
Systems play (net 2+ systems, best ROI 25%+)Spread 18-10 · Total 6-8 · ML 1-0
25-18 (58.1%)
+3.94
+9.2%
1 system on the sideSpread 2-2 · Total 6-7 · ML 3-0
11-9 (55.0%)
+1.95
+9.8%
2-3 systems on the sideSpread 16-9 · Total 9-10 · ML 1-0
26-19 (57.8%)
+3.84
+8.5%
4+ systems on the sideSpread 4-3 · Total 3-0
7-3 (70.0%)
+3.36
+33.6%
Best ROI under 25%Total 4-1
4-1 (80.0%)
+2.64
+52.7%
Best ROI 25-40%Spread 10-9 · Total 2-5 · ML 2-0
14-14 (50.0%)
-0.71
-2.5%
Best ROI 40%+Spread 12-5 · Total 12-11 · ML 2-0
26-16 (61.9%)
+7.24
+17.2%
Systems on both sides: side with moreSpread 0-1 · Total 1-2
1-3 (25.0%)
-2.09
-52.3%
Individual system records start with the Nov 4 scrape, which saves every qualifying system for each game (until now only the best one per side was kept).
Glossary
System
A StatSharp rule built from past games (for example, "home favorites of 10+ points in the first 5 games of the season") with its historical record betting that side.
Market
What the system bets: spread, total (over/under), moneyline, 1st-half spread or 1st-half total.
Side
The team or direction the system backs. "Bet on" a team means take that team; "bet against" means take its opponent.
Record (e.g. 75-37)
Wins and losses for the best qualifying system on that side over the years StatSharp tracks for that system. Pushes are not counted.
ROI
Return on investment for that best system: units won divided by units risked at standard prices. +27.8% means about 28 cents of profit per dollar bet over its history.
Systems count
How many separate qualifying systems point to the same side, after removing near-copies with an identical record. Two or more on one side with a best ROI of 25%+ makes a systems play on the board.
Qualifying
Only systems with 30 or more historical games count. Smaller samples are left out.
Both sides
Some games have systems backing each side. The board nets them out: a play's StatSharp tag shows "+3/41%" for 3 systems behind it (best ROI 41%) and "−2" for 2 systems on the other side.
This season
Each system's side is graded against the closing line once the game is final: 1 unit at -110 on spreads and totals, the closing price on moneylines. "Systems play" uses the board's rule (net 2+ systems on one side, best ROI 25%+).
Caution
Systems are cut from history with many conditions stacked together, so some records are luck. They are tracked on paper to see which hold up this season.
Ask the board
Ask about tonight's slate, our plays, results, line moves, splits or how the models and systems are doing. Answers come from a small Claude model reading only this board's data, so it can be wrong: check the tabs before acting. Research only, not betting advice.
Model scoreboard
Coch's Locks scoreboard
Every play graded against the line we flagged it at, 1 unit flat at that price (paper: nothing was staked). Coch's Locks are the day's Top 10 as first published; later runs never re-rank them. CLV is points of closing line value: positive means we beat the closing number.
Season
Plays
Record
Units
ROI
Avg CLV
Coch's Locks (daily Top 10)
19
12-7 63%
+3.89
+20.5%
-0.05
Top 5 only
10
6-4 60%
+1.47
+14.7%
+0.00
Locks: spreads
10
5-5 50%
-0.42
-4.2%
-0.10
Locks: totals
9
7-2 78%
+4.31
+47.8%
+0.00
Every flagged play
126
67-59 53%
+2.28
+1.8%
+0.07
Plays: model edge
91
45-46 49%
-4.64
-5.1%
+0.10
Plays: systems
34
21-13 62%
+6.00
+17.6%
+0.00
Plays: all models agree
1
1-0 100%
+0.93
+92.6%
+0.00
Plays: with the line move
1
1-0 100%
+0.91
+90.9%
+0.00
Plays: against the line move
2
1-1 50%
-0.07
-3.7%
+0.00
Plays: high-major
66
40-26 61%
+10.53
+16.0%
+0.06
Last 7 days
Day
Locks
Locks units
All plays
All units
CLV
Tue Nov 3
7-2 78%
+4.37
15-11 58%
+2.62
+0.35
Mon Nov 2
5-5 50%
-0.49
52-48 52%
-0.34
+0.00
Last 7 days
12-7 63%
+3.89
67-59 53%
+2.28
+0.07
Models
Season record for every model (KenPom, StatSharp sim, Torvik, EvanMiya, Action Network) and our blend, against final scores and the closing line: average miss, straight-up, against the spread, over/under and moneyline value. Updated each morning after Big Data Ball's results land.
Season
KenPom
Sim
Torvik
EvanMiya
Action
Blend
Weight in the blend, spreads
32%
11%
21%
21%
15%
–
Weight in the blend, totals
32%
13%
20%
20%
15%
–
Games graded
135
138
138
138
3
19
Through
Nov 3
Nov 3
Nov 3
Nov 3
Nov 3
Nov 3
Avg miss, marginclosing line: 10.31
10.36
14.44
10.32
9.94
15.87
9.92
Avg miss, totalclosing line: 13.17
13.13
13.78
13.59
14.03
13.47
11.52
Straight up
112-2383.0%
109-2581.3%
115-2383.3%
116-2284.1%
1-233.3%
17-289.5%
ATS vs close
69-6651.1%
72-6652.2%
67-7148.6%
64-7247.1%
0-30.0%
9-1047.4%
ATS, 3+ pt disagreement
31-3050.8%
61-5552.6%
23-2646.9%
25-1759.5%
0-20.0%
4-450.0%
ATS, last 7 days
69-6651.1%
72-6652.2%
67-7148.6%
64-7247.1%
0-30.0%
9-1047.4%
O/U vs close
70-6551.9%
82-5659.4%
75-6354.3%
74-6354.0%
3-0100.0%
14-573.7%
O/U, 4+ pt disagreement
22-971.0%
47-3061.0%
24-1857.1%
29-2553.7%
–
6-185.7%
O/U, last 7 days
70-6551.9%
82-5659.4%
75-6354.3%
74-6354.0%
3-0100.0%
14-573.7%
Moneyline value bets
19-2939.6%
29-8824.8%
20-2445.5%
24-2153.3%
0-20.0%
6-185.7%
Moneyline units
+27.37
-20.70
+24.06
+30.79
-2.00
+32.32
Moneyline ROI
+57.0%
-17.7%
+54.7%
+68.4%
-100.0%
+461.7%
Avg miss, 1st-half margin
–
10.30
–
–
–
–
Gold marks the leader in each row. ATS and O/U grade each model against the closing line: it "takes" whichever side its own number favors. Moneyline value bets take the side where the model's win chance beats the no-vig closing price by 3+ points, 1 unit at the closing price.
When the models agree
Each game is placed by how many models sit on the same side of the closing line, and graded on that side. The sim is measured against its usual underdog lean. This answers whether agreement against the line is an edge.
Market
Models vs the close
Games
Record
spread
all models agree, 2+ pts each
11
7-4 (63.6%)
spread
all models agree (any margin)
32
11-21 (34.4%)
spread
all but one agree
54
26-28 (48.1%)
spread
split
41
–
total
all models agree, 3+ pts each
8
5-3 (62.5%)
total
all models agree (any margin)
41
26-15 (63.4%)
total
all but one agree
56
29-27 (51.8%)
total
split
33
–
Betting signals
Action Network's money data, graded on the side it points to against the closing line. "Public side" is the record of the team taking 70%+ of bets; fading it wins the reverse.
Signal
Market
Games
Record
Action Network: Big money (money % 15+ above bets %)
spread
56
30-26 (53.6%)
Action Network: Big money (money % 15+ above bets %)
total
26
10-16 (38.5%)
Action Network: Public side (70%+ of bets)
spread
80
37-43 (46.2%)
Action Network: Action Network sharp money signal
spread
3
2-1 (66.7%)
Action Network: Action Network sharp money signal
total
3
2-1 (66.7%)
Glossary
Models
KenPom is KenPom's FanMatch projected score. Sim is StatSharp's game simulator (average of its simulated games). Torvik is Bart Torvik's T-Rank projected score. EvanMiya is EvanMiya's game prediction. All four are captured before tip each morning (EvanMiya's are also backfilled from its past-games page).
Blend
Our own projection: a weighted average of the five models for each game, separately for spreads and totals. Plays are flagged when the line differs from the blend by 2.5+ points on a spread or 4+ on a total. The blend is graded here like the others, so we can see whether it beats every single model.
Weight in the blend
How much each model counts. The season starts at KenPom 35%, Torvik 20%, EvanMiya 20%, Action Network 15%, sim 10%. Each morning the weights move toward each model's record: lower average miss and a better win rate against the closing line (spreads for the spread weight, totals for the total weight) earn more weight. A model's record gets half the say after about 400 graded games and more after that, so one hot week doesn't swing it. The sim's spread is corrected for its usual underdog lean before it goes into the blend.
Action Network
Action Network's own model projection. It is published for only a handful of games early in the season, so its sample grows slowly; the blend uses it wherever it exists.
Betting signals
From Action Network's betting splits. "Big money" is a side whose share of the money is 15+ points higher than its share of bets (fewer, bigger tickets, often sharper bettors). "Public side" is the team taking 70%+ of bets. "Sharp money signal" is Action Network's PRO flag that it tracked sharp action (steam and reverse line moves) on a side. Each is graded against the closing line.
Games graded
Games where the model had a prediction and Big Data Ball has the final score. Games against non-Division I teams usually have no result and drop out.
Through
The latest game date graded.
Avg miss, margin
Average absolute gap between the model's predicted margin (home minus away) and the real margin. Example: model says home by 8, home wins by 3, miss is 5. The "closing line" figure underneath is the same measure for the closing spread, the market's number to beat. Lower is better.
Avg miss, total
Same idea for total points: the gap between the model's predicted total and the real combined score, next to the closing total's miss.
Straight up
How often the team the model projected to win actually won. Every game counts, no spread involved.
ATS vs close
Against the spread. The model "takes" whichever side its own margin favors relative to the closing spread. Example: close is home −6, model says home by 9, so it takes home −6; home wins by 7 and the model wins the pick. Pushes and exact agreements are left out.
ATS, 3+ pt disagreement
Only the games where the model's margin differed from the closing spread by 3 points or more: the spots where it most strongly disagreed with the market. This is the split that matters most for betting.
O/U vs close
Over/under. The model takes the over when its predicted total is above the closing total and the under when below, graded on the final score.
O/U, 4+ pt disagreement
Only games where the model's total differed from the closing total by 4 points or more.
Last 7 days
The same ATS and O/U records counting only games from the most recent 7 days, to show current form.
Moneyline value bets
The model's win probability for each team (its own when published, otherwise worked out from its predicted margin) is compared with the closing moneyline after removing the bookmaker's margin. When the model is 3+ percentage points higher on a side, that side is a value bet, graded at 1 unit at the closing price.
Moneyline units / ROI
Units won or lost on those value bets, and units divided by bets placed. Underdog wins pay more than 1 unit, so the record and the units can tell different stories.
Avg miss, 1st-half margin
Average miss on the first-half margin. Only the StatSharp sim publishes first-half scores.
Gold
The leader in each row: lowest miss, highest winning percentage, or most units. Early on, small samples make leaders change night to night.
When the models agree
Each game is placed by how many models sit on the same side of the closing line. "All models agree, 2+ pts each" means every model with a number had the same side by at least 2 points on the spread (3 on the total); "all models agree" means the same side by any amount; "all but one" means one model dissented; "split" means no clear side. Each group is graded on the side the models favored. The sim's spread is measured against its usual underdog lean before it counts.
Method & notes
How a play gets on the board
The model blend (KenPom, the StatSharp sim, Torvik, EvanMiya and Action Network, weighted by how each is doing this season, separately for spreads and totals) is compared with DraftKings' current line. A spread gap of 2.5+ points or a total gap of 4+ points flags the play. Games with two or more StatSharp systems (30+ games, best ROI 25%+) on one side are flagged as systems plays.
StatSharp sim, Torvik and EvanMiya
When KenPom and every other model available (at least three in all) sit 2+ points on the same side of a spread, or 3+ on a total, the game is logged as a consensus play even if KenPom alone is short of the threshold. All three are shown on every game next to KenPom. A play ranks higher when the sim or Torvik also has 1.5+ points on the same side, and lower when either leans the other way. The sim projects underdogs much closer than the market on nearly every game (often by 10+ points), so taken at face value it would back every dog. Its spread vote is measured against the slate's typical lean instead: it only counts when it likes a side more, or less, than it usually does. Neither flags a play on its own yet: after the first night, the sim's average miss on the final margin was well behind KenPom's and the closing line's. The Model scoreboard tracks all three, and the weighting will follow those results.
Why line movement matters
In Big Data Ball's 2022-23, 2023-24 and 2025-26 closing lines, the side a line later moved toward won 54% at the opening number on 1+ point spread moves and 59% on 2+ point total moves. At the closing number the same bets were about break-even. Getting the number early is the edge, so every play is logged with its line at flag time and graded for closing-line value.
Schedule test
A team that is 3+ games in with a 75%+ win rate, a KenPom strength of schedule ranked #200 or worse, and no opponent so far within 50 spots of tonight's, meeting a top-100 KenPom team, is flagged. The board takes the opponent on the spread as a paper "schedule test" play and tracks its record.
What is still unproven
It's opening week. KenPom is mostly preseason ratings until teams have played a few games.
The house box-score model lost to the closing line in backtests. It only fills in where KenPom has no game.
Many small-conference games have thin, late lines; the tier tag keeps them separate in the record.
6:00 PM CT
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks @ High Point Panthers
On the board
Maryland-Eastern Shore Hawks +33.5systems play
The model blend has High Point by 31.4; DK has High Point by 33.5, so 2.1 pts of value on Maryland Eastern Shore. Line moved -30.5 to -33.5 (toward High Point). 5 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 42%). KenPom has High Point by 28 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has High Point by 27; Torvik has High Point by 35 (disagrees); EvanMiya has High Point by 32 (agrees). DraftKings: 1% of the handle and 17% of the bets on this side.
Lines and models
High Point spread
Total
Line (DK)
-33.5
147.5
KenPom
-28.0
144.0
Torvik
-35.0
145.0
EvanMiya
-31.9
144.9
StatSharp sim
-27.0
147.0
Blend
-31.4
144.9
Edge vs the blend: spread -2.1, total -2.6. Moneyline Maryland Eastern Shore +5000 · High Point -100000.
Betting splits
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · High Point -33.5
99% money 83% bets
–
77% money 58% bets
Total · Over 147.5
100% money 100% bets
–
30% money 40% bets
Moneyline · High Point
0% money 50% bets
–
–
big money: High Point
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
StatSharp systems
spread · Maryland Eastern Shore 41-14, ROI +42.3%: Any team - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 8+ ATS losses in last 10 games against opponent first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season strong with 7+ wins in last 8 games.
h1_spread · Maryland Eastern Shore 41-14, ROI +42.3%: Home favorites of 6 or more points vs. the first half line - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight spread covers, team that had a winning record last season playing a team that had a losing season, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
h1_total · Over 107-60, ROI +22.3%: Home teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 - good shooting team from last season - made >=45% of their shot attempts, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
KenPom matchup
Ratings
Maryland Eastern Shore#361 · 0-1
High Point#61 · 1-0
Net rating
-21.30
+14.34
Adj. offense
91.1#360
112.6#63
Adj. defense
112.4#343
98.3#68
Tempo
68.9#344
72.4#96
Luck
+.000#1
+.000#1
Schedule
Maryland Eastern Shore#361 · 0-1
High Point#61 · 1-0
Strength of schedule
+15.19#76
-0.00#131
Non-conference SOS
+15.19#76
-0.00#131
Best opponent so far
#85
–
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
Maryland Eastern Shore#361 · 0-1
High Point#61 · 1-0
eFG%Maryland Eastern Shore offense vs High Point defense
45.0%#195
42.0%#53
eFG%High Point offense vs Maryland Eastern Shore defense
58.8%#223
54.4%#97
Turnover %Maryland Eastern Shore offense vs High Point defense
25.4%#244
16.7%#169
Turnover %High Point offense vs Maryland Eastern Shore defense
15.5%#187
19.7%#175
Off. rebound %Maryland Eastern Shore offense vs High Point defense
36.8%#72
23.7%#57
Off. rebound %High Point offense vs Maryland Eastern Shore defense
29.6%#123
29.0%#163
FT rateMaryland Eastern Shore offense vs High Point defense
20.0#245
26.8#76
FT rateHigh Point offense vs Maryland Eastern Shore defense
43.9#195
21.1#240
Shooting and style
Maryland Eastern Shore#361 · 0-1
High Point#61 · 1-0
3P%Maryland Eastern Shore offense vs High Point defense
34.8%#107
19.2%#28
3P%High Point offense vs Maryland Eastern Shore defense
30.4%#121
30.0%#157
2P%Maryland Eastern Shore offense vs High Point defense
40.5%#229
53.3%#156
2P%High Point offense vs Maryland Eastern Shore defense
67.6%#253
59.5%#79
FT%
66.7%#153
83.3%#28
3PA rate
38.3%#175
35.1%#214
Assist rate
34.8%#253
35.7%#251
Block % (def.)
11.8%#98
20.0%#18
Steal % (def.)
8.5%#176
13.7%#78
Where the points come from
Maryland Eastern Shore#361 · 0-1
High Point#61 · 1-0
Points from 3
38.7%#66
25.0%#197
Points from 2
48.4%#145
61.1%#31
Points from FT
12.9%#229
13.9%#218
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
9:00 PM CT
North Dakota St Bison @ Saint Mary's Gaels
On the board
Saint Mary's Gaels -13.5systems play
The model blend has Saint Mary's by 11.5; DK has Saint Mary's by 13.5, so 2.0 pts of value on Saint Mary's. Line moved -12.5 to -13.5 (toward Saint Mary's). 6 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 45%). KenPom has Saint Mary's by 12 (disagrees); StatSharp's sim has Saint Mary's by 7; Torvik has Saint Mary's by 13; EvanMiya has Saint Mary's by 8 (disagrees). DraftKings: 100% of the handle and 75% of the bets on this side.
Lines and models
Saint Mary's spread
Total
Line (DK)
-13.5
148.5
KenPom
-12.0
146.0
Torvik
-13.0
143.0
EvanMiya
-8.3
147.3
StatSharp sim
-7.0
151.0
Blend
-11.5
146.4
Edge vs the blend: spread -2.0, total -2.1. Moneyline North Dakota St +700 · Saint Mary's -1100.
Intel
Models
Total climbed four while every model sits below it
The total rose from 158.5 to 162.5 and NKU went from -1.5 to -2.5. KenPom 157, T-Rank 159, EvanMiya 156.6, StatSharp sim 152, and the sim shows a 10.5-point under edge.
Angle: Largest total disagreement on the board. Against that, 1,125 tracked bets and Action's writer also lean under, so the number may already reflect it by tip.
Gaels in first year after Bennett; projections range 8 to 19
Mickey McConnell replaced Randy Bennett and Saint Mary's needed overtime to beat Illinois State two days ago. Market -13.5; KenPom -19, T-Rank -13.2, EvanMiya -8.3, sim -7.
Angle: KenPom likes the Gaels; the two others that differ most like the Bison. Action's staff took NDSU +13.5 citing the short turnaround, while StatSharp shows 6 qualifying systems on Saint Mary's.
spread · Saint Mary's 41-13, ROI +44.9%: Favorites of 10 or more points - top level team from last season who won 80% or more of their games, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
KenPom matchup
A team with no games yet shows only its preseason ratings.
Ratings
North Dakota St#175 · 1-0
Saint Mary's#81 · 1-0
Net rating
-2.70
+11.37
Adj. offense
103.8#170
109.1#97
Adj. defense
106.5#208
97.7#62
Tempo
70.6#239
70.3#260
Luck
–
+.000#1
Schedule
North Dakota St#175 · 1-0
Saint Mary's#81 · 1-0
Strength of schedule
–
+0.89#125
Non-conference SOS
–
+0.89#125
Best opponent so far
–
#4
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
North Dakota St#175 · 1-0
Saint Mary's#81 · 1-0
eFG%North Dakota St offense vs Saint Mary's defense
–
59.5%#232
eFG%Saint Mary's offense vs North Dakota St defense
–
52.9%#109
Turnover %North Dakota St offense vs Saint Mary's defense
–
23.6%#50
Turnover %Saint Mary's offense vs North Dakota St defense
–
14.4%#68
Off. rebound %North Dakota St offense vs Saint Mary's defense
–
28.6%#108
Off. rebound %Saint Mary's offense vs North Dakota St defense
–
41.0%#46
FT rateNorth Dakota St offense vs Saint Mary's defense
–
39.7#168
FT rateSaint Mary's offense vs North Dakota St defense
–
38.2#118
Shooting and style
North Dakota St#175 · 1-0
Saint Mary's#81 · 1-0
3P%North Dakota St offense vs Saint Mary's defense
–
48.1%#263
3P%Saint Mary's offense vs North Dakota St defense
–
23.5%#221
2P%North Dakota St offense vs Saint Mary's defense
–
48.4%#105
2P%Saint Mary's offense vs North Dakota St defense
–
58.8%#85
FT%
–
69.2%#137
3PA rate
–
25.0%#271
Assist rate
–
52.9%#145
Block % (def.)
–
6.5%#196
Steal % (def.)
–
15.8%#44
Where the points come from
North Dakota St#175 · 1-0
Saint Mary's#81 · 1-0
Points from 3
–
13.3%#273
Points from 2
–
66.7%#9
Points from FT
–
20.0%#126
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
6:00 PM CT
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights @ Butler Bulldogs
On the board
Over 156.5systems play
The model blend projects 155 vs a DK total of 156.5: 1.7 pts toward the over. Total moved 153.5 to 156.5. 2 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 36%). KenPom 149 (disagrees); StatSharp's sim 149 (disagrees); Torvik 169 (agrees); EvanMiya 154 (disagrees). Action Network: 29% of the money and 32% of the bets on this side.
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights +27.5systems play
The model blend has Butler by 25.1; DK has Butler by 27.5, so 2.4 pts of value on Fairleigh Dickinson. Line moved -24.5 to -27.5 (toward Butler). 9 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 57%). KenPom has Butler by 21 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Butler by 13 (agrees); Torvik has Butler by 29 (disagrees); EvanMiya has Butler by 30 (disagrees). DraftKings: 32% of the handle and 36% of the bets on this side.
Lines and models
Butler spread
Total
Line (DK)
-27.5
156.5
KenPom
-21.0
149.0
Torvik
-29.0
169.0
EvanMiya
-30.1
153.5
StatSharp sim
-13.0
149.0
Blend
-25.1
154.8
Edge vs the blend: spread -2.4, total -1.7. Moneyline Fairleigh Dickinson +3500 · Butler -20000.
Intel
Market / sharp
Butler spread jumped five points; models split widely
Consensus moved Butler from -20.5 to -25.5 and the total from 151.5 to 155.5. KenPom has Butler by 21, T-Rank by 28.9, EvanMiya by 30.1, and the StatSharp sim by only 13.
Angle: The biggest move on the slate, with a 17-point model range. Action's PRO model sits near 149 on the total; its writer backed the under at 153.5 before the rise.
spread · Fairleigh Dickinson 56-12, ROI +57.2%: Underdogs of 10 or more points - after a blowout loss by 30 points or more, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
total · Over 49-20, ROI +35.6%: Road teams against the total - first 5 games of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more straight ATS losses, bad team from last season who won only 20% to 40% of their games, in the 1st 5 games of the season.
h1_spread · Fairleigh Dickinson 71-36, ROI +26.7%: Home favorites of 11 or more points vs. the first half line - after a blowout win by 20 points or more, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
h1_total · Over 35-12, ROI +42.2%: Road teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - poor shooting team from last season - made <=42% of their shot attempts, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
h1_total · Under 50-23, ROI +30.8%: Home teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 98 or more points/game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
KenPom matchup
Ratings
Fairleigh Dickinson#341 · 0-1
Butler#89 · 1-0
Net rating
-15.85
+9.75
Adj. offense
94.1#346
110.7#80
Adj. defense
109.9#298
100.9#97
Tempo
70.8#231
73.0#63
Luck
+.000#1
+.000#1
Schedule
Fairleigh Dickinson#341 · 0-1
Butler#89 · 1-0
Strength of schedule
+34.99#3
-21.04#263
Non-conference SOS
+34.99#3
-21.04#263
Best opponent so far
#4
–
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
Fairleigh Dickinson#341 · 0-1
Butler#89 · 1-0
eFG%Fairleigh Dickinson offense vs Butler defense
32.0%#269
40.3%#39
eFG%Butler offense vs Fairleigh Dickinson defense
66.9%#265
59.7%#47
Turnover %Fairleigh Dickinson offense vs Butler defense
15.9%#100
20.5%#95
Turnover %Butler offense vs Fairleigh Dickinson defense
9.3%#273
25.7%#245
Off. rebound %Fairleigh Dickinson offense vs Butler defense
6.5%#277
24.4%#66
Off. rebound %Butler offense vs Fairleigh Dickinson defense
55.0%#274
50.0%#11
FT rateFairleigh Dickinson offense vs Butler defense
18.0#255
17.9#23
FT rateButler offense vs Fairleigh Dickinson defense
19.3#29
25.4#212
Shooting and style
Fairleigh Dickinson#341 · 0-1
Butler#89 · 1-0
3P%Fairleigh Dickinson offense vs Butler defense
15.2%#266
16.7%#14
3P%Butler offense vs Fairleigh Dickinson defense
37.3%#196
36.4%#91
2P%Fairleigh Dickinson offense vs Butler defense
42.9%#217
48.8%#115
2P%Butler offense vs Fairleigh Dickinson defense
84.4%#278
69.6%#15
FT%
54.5%#244
94.1%#2
3PA rate
54.1%#26
65.7%#2
Assist rate
47.1%#194
81.3%#3
Block % (def.)
12.5%#88
14.0%#71
Steal % (def.)
5.3%#252
10.3%#141
Where the points come from
Fairleigh Dickinson#341 · 0-1
Butler#89 · 1-0
Points from 3
33.3%#111
50.0%#15
Points from 2
53.3%#100
33.3%#253
Points from FT
13.3%#223
16.7%#179
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
6:30 PM CT
CSU Northridge Matadors @ Wichita St Shockers
Lines and models
Wichita St spread
Total
Line (DK)
-14.5
160.5
KenPom
-13.0
159.0
Torvik
-18.0
160.0
EvanMiya
-18.9
155.5
Blend
-16.1
158.3
Edge vs the blend: spread +1.6, total -2.2. Moneyline CSUN +850 · Wichita St -1450.
Betting splits
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · Wichita St -14.5
95% money 60% bets
100% money 100% bets
63% money 77% bets
Total · Over 160.5
–
100% money 100% bets
32% money 29% bets
Moneyline · Wichita St
50% money 90% bets
100% money 100% bets
93% money 96% bets
big money: Wichita St
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
KenPom matchup
A team with no games yet shows only its preseason ratings.
Ratings
CSUN#160 · 0-0
Wichita St#79 · 0-0
Net rating
-0.91
+11.93
Adj. offense
103.3#183
112.4#66
Adj. defense
104.2#147
100.5#90
Tempo
75.7#3
71.7#158
Luck
–
–
Schedule
CSUN#160 · 0-0
Wichita St#79 · 0-0
Strength of schedule
–
–
Non-conference SOS
–
–
Best opponent so far
–
–
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
CSUN#160 · 0-0
Wichita St#79 · 0-0
eFG%CSUN offense vs Wichita St defense
–
–
eFG%Wichita St offense vs CSUN defense
–
–
Turnover %CSUN offense vs Wichita St defense
–
–
Turnover %Wichita St offense vs CSUN defense
–
–
Off. rebound %CSUN offense vs Wichita St defense
–
–
Off. rebound %Wichita St offense vs CSUN defense
–
–
FT rateCSUN offense vs Wichita St defense
–
–
FT rateWichita St offense vs CSUN defense
–
–
Shooting and style
CSUN#160 · 0-0
Wichita St#79 · 0-0
3P%CSUN offense vs Wichita St defense
–
–
3P%Wichita St offense vs CSUN defense
–
–
2P%CSUN offense vs Wichita St defense
–
–
2P%Wichita St offense vs CSUN defense
–
–
FT%
–
–
3PA rate
–
–
Assist rate
–
–
Block % (def.)
–
–
Steal % (def.)
–
–
Where the points come from
CSUN#160 · 0-0
Wichita St#79 · 0-0
Points from 3
–
–
Points from 2
–
–
Points from FT
–
–
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
6:00 PM CT
Longwood Lancers @ Saint Joseph's Hawks
On the board
Under 151.5model edge
The model blend projects 146 vs a DK total of 151.5: 5.5 pts toward the under. Total moved 149.5 to 151.5. KenPom 147 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 147 (agrees); Torvik 144 (agrees); EvanMiya 146 (agrees). DraftKings: 0% of the handle and 0% of the bets on this side.
Lines and models
Saint Joseph's spread
Total
Line (DK)
-10.5
151.5
KenPom
-9.0
147.0
Torvik
-10.0
144.0
EvanMiya
-8.2
145.8
StatSharp sim
-7.0
147.0
Blend
-9.6
146.0
Edge vs the blend: spread -0.9, total -5.5. Moneyline Longwood +455 · Saint Joseph's -625.
Intel
Models
Gaels in first year after Bennett; projections range 8 to 19
Mickey McConnell replaced Randy Bennett and Saint Mary's needed overtime to beat Illinois State two days ago. Market -13.5; KenPom -19, T-Rank -13.2, EvanMiya -8.3, sim -7.
Angle: KenPom likes the Gaels; the two others that differ most like the Bison. Action's staff took NDSU +13.5 citing the short turnaround, while StatSharp shows 6 qualifying systems on Saint Mary's.
h1_total · Over 77-40, ROI +25.6%: Home teams where the first half total is 65.5 to 70.5 - good team from last season who won 60% to 80% of their games, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
KenPom matchup
A team with no games yet shows only its preseason ratings.
Ratings
Longwood#200 · 1-0
Saint Joseph's#124 · 0-0
Net rating
-4.13
+3.68
Adj. offense
102.0#211
104.2#162
Adj. defense
106.1#193
100.6#91
Tempo
72.1#117
71.7#155
Luck
–
–
Schedule
Longwood#200 · 1-0
Saint Joseph's#124 · 0-0
Strength of schedule
–
–
Non-conference SOS
–
–
Best opponent so far
–
#4
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
Longwood#200 · 1-0
Saint Joseph's#124 · 0-0
eFG%Longwood offense vs Saint Joseph's defense
–
–
eFG%Saint Joseph's offense vs Longwood defense
–
–
Turnover %Longwood offense vs Saint Joseph's defense
–
–
Turnover %Saint Joseph's offense vs Longwood defense
–
–
Off. rebound %Longwood offense vs Saint Joseph's defense
–
–
Off. rebound %Saint Joseph's offense vs Longwood defense
–
–
FT rateLongwood offense vs Saint Joseph's defense
–
–
FT rateSaint Joseph's offense vs Longwood defense
–
–
Shooting and style
Longwood#200 · 1-0
Saint Joseph's#124 · 0-0
3P%Longwood offense vs Saint Joseph's defense
–
–
3P%Saint Joseph's offense vs Longwood defense
–
–
2P%Longwood offense vs Saint Joseph's defense
–
–
2P%Saint Joseph's offense vs Longwood defense
–
–
FT%
–
–
3PA rate
–
–
Assist rate
–
–
Block % (def.)
–
–
Steal % (def.)
–
–
Where the points come from
Longwood#200 · 1-0
Saint Joseph's#124 · 0-0
Points from 3
–
–
Points from 2
–
–
Points from FT
–
–
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
9:00 PM CT
Milwaukee Panthers @ Santa Clara Broncos
On the board
Santa Clara Broncos -16.5model edge
The model blend has Santa Clara by 20.2; DK has Santa Clara by 16.5, so 3.7 pts of value on Santa Clara. Line moved -18.5 to -16.5 (toward Milwaukee). 4 StatSharp systems back this side (best ROI 41%). 1 StatSharp system on the other side. KenPom has Santa Clara by 18 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Santa Clara by 18 (agrees); Torvik has Santa Clara by 19 (agrees); EvanMiya has Santa Clara by 23 (agrees). DraftKings: 92% of the handle and 40% of the bets on this side.
Lines and models
Santa Clara spread
Total
Line (DK)
-16.5
160.5
KenPom
-18.0
160.0
Torvik
-19.0
159.0
EvanMiya
-22.7
160.3
StatSharp sim
-18.0
162.0
Blend
-20.2
160.1
Edge vs the blend: spread +3.7, total -0.4. Moneyline Milwaukee +1100 · Santa Clara -2100.
Betting splits
DK
Circa
Action
Spread · Santa Clara -16.5
92% money 40% bets
–
88% money 76% bets
Total · Over 160.5
–
–
18% money 21% bets
Moneyline · Santa Clara
100% money 100% bets
–
83% money 94% bets
big money: Santa Clara
DraftKings: 1 snapshot, last 10:06 PM CT
StatSharp systems
spread · Milwaukee 84-41, ROI +28.3%: Any team - poor defensive team from last season - allowed 77 or more points/game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, after a blowout loss by 20 points or more.
spread · Santa Clara 42-15, ROI +40.7%: Favorites of 10 to 19.5 points - dominant team from last season - outscored opponents by 9+ PPG, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 5 games of the season.
h1_spread · Santa Clara 53-23, ROI +33.1%: A home team vs. the 1rst half line - poor foul drawing team from last season - attempted <=18 free throws/game, in the 1st 5 games of the season, team from a second tier division 1-A conference against a team from a mid-major conference.
h1_total · Under 250-165, ROI +15.0%: All teams where the first half total is 70.5 to 75.5 - after allowing 85 points or more, with just two starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
KenPom matchup
Ratings
Milwaukee#263 · 0-1
Santa Clara#71 · 1-0
Net rating
-8.89
+12.65
Adj. offense
99.7#268
114.8#38
Adj. defense
108.6#264
102.1#116
Tempo
72.1#127
73.5#34
Luck
+.000#1
+.000#1
Schedule
Milwaukee#263 · 0-1
Santa Clara#71 · 1-0
Strength of schedule
+24.76#27
-8.23#176
Non-conference SOS
+24.76#27
-8.23#176
Best opponent so far
–
#191
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
Milwaukee#263 · 0-1
Santa Clara#71 · 1-0
eFG%Milwaukee offense vs Santa Clara defense
41.9%#228
42.1%#54
eFG%Santa Clara offense vs Milwaukee defense
67.2%#267
56.5%#71
Turnover %Milwaukee offense vs Santa Clara defense
22.6%#215
19.1%#119
Turnover %Santa Clara offense vs Milwaukee defense
18.6%#131
17.7%#132
Off. rebound %Milwaukee offense vs Santa Clara defense
28.6%#168
40.0%#222
Off. rebound %Santa Clara offense vs Milwaukee defense
26.9%#89
32.4%#117
FT rateMilwaukee offense vs Santa Clara defense
24.2#219
44.4#198
FT rateSanta Clara offense vs Milwaukee defense
41.4#178
35.5#137
Shooting and style
Milwaukee#263 · 0-1
Santa Clara#71 · 1-0
3P%Milwaukee offense vs Santa Clara defense
26.1%#198
28.0%#99
3P%Santa Clara offense vs Milwaukee defense
54.5%#277
42.4%#41
2P%Milwaukee offense vs Santa Clara defense
43.6%#212
42.1%#55
2P%Santa Clara offense vs Milwaukee defense
58.3%#189
48.3%#176
FT%
73.3%#95
86.4%#16
3PA rate
37.1%#188
53.2%#32
Assist rate
43.5%#219
75.0%#11
Block % (def.)
2.8%#249
15.8%#49
Steal % (def.)
10.6%#128
12.3%#97
Where the points come from
Milwaukee#263 · 0-1
Santa Clara#71 · 1-0
Points from 3
28.6%#162
47.2%#28
Points from 2
54.0%#94
31.5%#258
Points from FT
17.5%#167
21.3%#110
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
9:00 PM CT
Queens University Royals @ Loyola Marymount Lions
On the board
Queens University Royals +8.5model edge
The model blend has Loyola Marymount by 5.8; DK has Loyola Marymount by 8.5, so 2.7 pts of value on Queens. Line moved -5.5 to -8.5 (toward Loyola Marymount). KenPom has Loyola Marymount by 5 (agrees); StatSharp's sim has Queens by 1 (agrees); Torvik has Loyola Marymount by 8; EvanMiya has Loyola Marymount by 5 (agrees).
Lines and models
Loyola Marymount spread
Total
Line (DK)
-8.5
160.5
KenPom
-5.0
159.0
Torvik
-8.0
160.0
EvanMiya
-4.8
158.8
StatSharp sim
+1.0
159.0
Blend
-5.8
159.2
Edge vs the blend: spread -2.7, total -1.3. Moneyline Queens +270 · Loyola Marymount -340.
Intel
Market / sharp
LMU moved three points past three of four models
LMU went from -5.5 to -8.5 and the total from 157.5 to 161. KenPom -5, EvanMiya -4.8, sim has Queens by 1; only T-Rank (-8.3) matches the number.
Angle: Money share is roughly even with bets (75% on LMU), so this reads as a market move rather than one-way public pressure.
A team with no games yet shows only its preseason ratings.
Ratings
Queens#178 · 1-0
Loyola Marymount#149 · 0-0
Net rating
-2.89
+0.51
Adj. offense
107.7#116
104.1#164
Adj. defense
110.5#311
103.6#136
Tempo
74.1#22
70.9#220
Luck
+.000#1
–
Schedule
Queens#178 · 1-0
Loyola Marymount#149 · 0-0
Strength of schedule
-3.30#145
–
Non-conference SOS
-3.30#145
–
Best opponent so far
–
–
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
Queens#178 · 1-0
Loyola Marymount#149 · 0-0
eFG%Queens offense vs Loyola Marymount defense
63.2%#28
–
eFG%Loyola Marymount offense vs Queens defense
63.9%#256
–
Turnover %Queens offense vs Loyola Marymount defense
11.3%#18
–
Turnover %Loyola Marymount offense vs Queens defense
17.5%#152
–
Off. rebound %Queens offense vs Loyola Marymount defense
25.7%#199
–
Off. rebound %Loyola Marymount offense vs Queens defense
32.4%#164
–
FT rateQueens offense vs Loyola Marymount defense
38.2#118
–
FT rateLoyola Marymount offense vs Queens defense
15.3#15
–
Shooting and style
Queens#178 · 1-0
Loyola Marymount#149 · 0-0
3P%Queens offense vs Loyola Marymount defense
37.0%#84
–
3P%Loyola Marymount offense vs Queens defense
47.1%#259
–
2P%Queens offense vs Loyola Marymount defense
68.3%#23
–
2P%Loyola Marymount offense vs Queens defense
57.9%#187
–
FT%
65.4%#168
–
3PA rate
39.7%#157
–
Assist rate
42.1%#225
–
Block % (def.)
7.9%#170
–
Steal % (def.)
12.5%#94
–
Where the points come from
Queens#178 · 1-0
Loyola Marymount#149 · 0-0
Points from 3
29.1%#160
–
Points from 2
54.4%#90
–
Points from FT
16.5%#183
–
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
7:00 PM CT
Northern Kentucky Norse @ South Dakota Coyotes
On the board
Under 162.5model edge
The model blend projects 157 vs a DK total of 162.5: 5.9 pts toward the under. Total moved 159.5 to 162.5. KenPom 157 (agrees); StatSharp's sim 152 (agrees); Torvik 159 (agrees); EvanMiya 157 (agrees). Action Network: 71% of the money and 69% of the bets on this side.
Lines and models
South Dakota spread
Total
Line (DK)
+2.5
162.5
KenPom
-1.0
157.0
Torvik
-1.0
159.0
EvanMiya
+1.0
156.6
StatSharp sim
+2.0
152.0
Blend
+0.7
156.6
Edge vs the blend: spread +1.8, total -5.9. Moneyline Northern Kentucky -148 · South Dakota +124.
Intel
Models
Total climbed four while every model sits below it
The total rose from 158.5 to 162.5 and NKU went from -1.5 to -2.5. KenPom 157, T-Rank 159, EvanMiya 156.6, StatSharp sim 152, and the sim shows a 10.5-point under edge.
Angle: Largest total disagreement on the board. Against that, 1,125 tracked bets and Action's writer also lean under, so the number may already reflect it by tip.
Auburn: Freeman probable; Rubstavicius status conflicts
Owen Freeman is probable with a foot issue. Action lists Mantas Rubstavicius out indefinitely (eligibility), while Covers has him questionable for a non-injury reason.
Angle: Line moved -26.5 to -28.5 with 96% of money on Auburn. Sources disagree on Rubstavicius, so confirm before tip.
h1_total · Under 48-19, ROI +36.8%: Road teams where the first half total is >=75.5 - team that had a winning record last season, in the 1st 5 games of the season, with just one or fewer starters returning from last year in the first 10 games of the season.
KenPom matchup
A team with no games yet shows only its preseason ratings.
Ratings
Northern Kentucky#197 · 1-0
South Dakota#259 · 1-0
Net rating
-3.99
-8.17
Adj. offense
102.0#210
101.7#220
Adj. defense
106.0#191
109.9#299
Tempo
72.7#77
73.4#36
Luck
+.000#1
–
Schedule
Northern Kentucky#197 · 1-0
South Dakota#259 · 1-0
Strength of schedule
-3.47#147
–
Non-conference SOS
-3.47#147
–
Best opponent so far
#186
–
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
Northern Kentucky#197 · 1-0
South Dakota#259 · 1-0
eFG%Northern Kentucky offense vs South Dakota defense
54.0%#101
–
eFG%South Dakota offense vs Northern Kentucky defense
44.3%#78
–
Turnover %Northern Kentucky offense vs South Dakota defense
19.0%#161
–
Turnover %South Dakota offense vs Northern Kentucky defense
9.5%#271
–
Off. rebound %Northern Kentucky offense vs South Dakota defense
26.9%#188
–
Off. rebound %South Dakota offense vs Northern Kentucky defense
30.4%#139
–
FT rateNorthern Kentucky offense vs South Dakota defense
66.0#12
–
FT rateSouth Dakota offense vs Northern Kentucky defense
34.3#124
–
Shooting and style
Northern Kentucky#197 · 1-0
South Dakota#259 · 1-0
3P%Northern Kentucky offense vs South Dakota defense
19.0%#253
–
3P%South Dakota offense vs Northern Kentucky defense
26.7%#83
–
2P%Northern Kentucky offense vs South Dakota defense
72.4%#9
–
2P%South Dakota offense vs Northern Kentucky defense
47.5%#97
–
FT%
90.9%#8
–
3PA rate
42.0%#128
–
Assist rate
40.0%#239
–
Block % (def.)
5.0%#223
–
Steal % (def.)
4.1%#264
–
Where the points come from
Northern Kentucky#197 · 1-0
South Dakota#259 · 1-0
Points from 3
14.3%#271
–
Points from 2
50.0%#122
–
Points from FT
35.7%#7
–
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
8:00 PM CT
Radford Highlanders @ California Golden Bears
Lines and models
California spread
Total
Line (DK)
-15.5
157.5
KenPom
-16.0
154.0
Torvik
-20.0
154.0
EvanMiya
-15.4
151.6
StatSharp sim
-8.0
158.0
Blend
-16.6
154.0
Edge vs the blend: spread +1.1, total -3.5. Moneyline Radford +1000 · California -1800.
Intel
Models
KenPom sits eight points above the market on Cal
Cal is -15.5; KenPom says -23, T-Rank -20.4, EvanMiya -15.4, sim -8. Covers lists Cal forward L. Dort questionable with an ankle injury.
Angle: A 95% money share is on Cal already. Confirm Dort's status before tip since the spread gap depends on the rotation.
A team with no games yet shows only its preseason ratings.
Ratings
Radford#269 · 0-1
California#101 · 1-0
Net rating
-9.18
+7.79
Adj. offense
100.0#262
109.7#89
Adj. defense
109.1#276
101.9#115
Tempo
72.7#79
72.0#133
Luck
+.000#1
–
Schedule
Radford#269 · 0-1
California#101 · 1-0
Strength of schedule
+4.01#113
–
Non-conference SOS
+4.01#113
–
Best opponent so far
–
–
Four factors (offense vs the other side's defense)
Radford#269 · 0-1
California#101 · 1-0
eFG%Radford offense vs California defense
51.0%#134
–
eFG%California offense vs Radford defense
48.2%#114
–
Turnover %Radford offense vs California defense
28.1%#259
–
Turnover %California offense vs Radford defense
13.3%#236
–
Off. rebound %Radford offense vs California defense
25.8%#197
–
Off. rebound %California offense vs Radford defense
40.0%#222
–
FT rateRadford offense vs California defense
32.0#169
–
FT rateCalifornia offense vs Radford defense
61.4#257
–
Shooting and style
Radford#269 · 0-1
California#101 · 1-0
3P%Radford offense vs California defense
33.3%#118
–
3P%California offense vs Radford defense
26.9%#90
–
2P%Radford offense vs California defense
51.7%#136
–
2P%California offense vs Radford defense
54.8%#164
–
FT%
68.8%#141
–
3PA rate
42.0%#128
–
Assist rate
63.6%#67
–
Block % (def.)
16.1%#46
–
Steal % (def.)
3.0%#272
–
Where the points come from
Radford#269 · 0-1
California#101 · 1-0
Points from 3
33.9%#104
–
Points from 2
48.4%#145
–
Points from FT
17.7%#164
–
KenPom values with national rank (#1 is best on both ends). Green marks the edge.
7:00 PM CT
SE Louisiana Lions @ Auburn Tigers
Lines and models
Auburn spread
Total
Line (DK)
-29.5
151.5
Edge vs the blend: spread +1.3, total -1.8. Moneyline SE Louisiana +5000 · Auburn -100000.
Intel
Injury / lineup
Auburn: Freeman probable; Rubstavicius status conflicts
Owen Freeman is probable with a foot issue. Action lists Mantas Rubstavicius out indefinitely (eligibility), while Covers has him questionable for a non-injury reason.
Angle: Line moved -26.5 to -28.5 with 96% of money on Auburn. Sources disagree on Rubstavicius, so confirm before tip.
